Goldman Ups Its 2009 Car Sales Forecast

By Michelle Krebs April 23, 2009

Goldman Sachs has increased its forecast for 2009 new vehicle sales from 10 million to 11 million.

Goldman analyst Patrick Archambault said his optimism comes from the likelihood that Congress will pass a cash-for-clunkers bill, one that could add 750,000 to 1 million vehicle sales this year as consumers turn in their old cars for new new ones for a government rebate. Archambault also sees improvement in consumer confidence.

Goldman has not changed its sales forecasts beyond 2009. For 2010, the firm is sticking with 12 million sales, increasing to 13 million in 2011 and 14 million in 2012.

Goldman is upbeat on Ford and boosted its recommendation on Ford stock to "buy" from neutral. Ford has "sufficient liquidity to make it through 2010 without additional funding,"  Archambault wrote in his report released this week. He predicts Ford will increase profits by more than $9 billion from 2009 to 2012, thanks to $4.7 billion in labor cost savings, a higher capacity utilization rate at its plants and $2.6 billion in other cost reductions.

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feettap says: 10:03 AM, 04.23.09

Some of those old clunkers are better than the new cars! How about a government rebate for not wracking up more debt with car loans?

fulcrumb says: 7:55 PM, 04.25.09

I think the cash-for-clunkers scheme won't be very successful in the US, as it has been in Europe.
The Feinstein-Collins-Shumer-led bill proposes that your trade must have been CAFE rated less than 18 mpg when new and that the vehicle you buy must exceed the CAFE rating for that class of vehicle by 25%!
Used cars 2004 and newer would also be legible for a check. While this might help some OEM dealers, it doesn't help the OEM's. Plus it has a provision for obtaining public transportation vouchers instead.
This describes a pretty narrow market share as I see it. Their bill is intended more for reducing greenhouse gasses and oil consumption rather than boosting new vehicle sales.
Although it would run through 2012, i doubt that it would raise US new vehicle sales more than 100-150,000 units/yr given all of its restrictions and caveats.
What is needed to get this economy off its dead rump and on its dying feet is a "cash for shacks" deal to keep folks in their homes.


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