An Early Look at June Sales

Last month I noted that monthly vehicle sales seem to have settled into a range from the high 14m to mid 15m on a SAAR basis. Looking at early June sales, it seems the pattern is continuing, although the good news is that June looks like it might end up at the higher end of the range.

In May, sales started out slowly and built through the Memorial Day weekend. That higher pace has continued in June with sales so far pointing to retail sales of around 1.12m and a SAAR of 12.7m. This compares with retail sales of around 1.17m and a SAAR of 12.3m last month. The fleet mix in May was 19.3%, but fleet sales typically drop in June. If we assume a fleet mix of around 17.5%, June total vehicle sales will end up around 1.36m and the SAAR will be 15.4m (compared to 1.44m or SAAR of 15.3m last month).

Looking at retail share, GM is doing well so far, with a share increase of 11% over last month. Mercedes is down 12%, Nissan down 6% and not much change for the other manufacturers.