An Early Look at July Sales

A lot can change in a month. When I looked at early June sales, they were tracking in the same range we had seen since last October. (High 14m SAAR to mid 15M SAAR.) Then sales accelerated into the July 4th weekend and we saw the SAAR for the month get close to 16m. Was this an aberration or would sales hold at this higher level?

A look at early July sales shows the pace is holding. In fact, the SAAR could even hit the 16m mark. What is remarkable about this performance is that indictors from other sectors of the economy are decidedly mixed. Even in our space, there are heavy discounting and incentives that are probably behind some of this sales success.

Still, if we crack 16m this month, it will be cause for cheer. Here are the details: Pacing so far suggests July retail sales will end around 1.12m units for a SAAR of 13.3m. This compares with 1.15m units and a SAAR of 13m last month. If we factor in a typical month-to-month drop in fleet sales (June was 18.3%; July should be around 17%), then July will end with total vehicle sales of around 1.34m and a SAAR of 16m. (This compares with 1.40m and a SAAR of 15.9m last month).

Looking at month-to-month changes in retail share, Nissan is up significantly at 9%, and Toyota is up 5%. BMW, Ford, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz are down 18%, 8%, 8% and 7%, respectively. Everyone else is relatively stable.