An Early Look at September Sales

It is still a bit early to a draw solid conclusion about the final sales tally for September vehicles (or if QE3 will give sales a boost). Having said that, there is enough data to be able to say that early in the month, sales have slowed a bit more than is normal. If the current pace were to continue, we would see September finish with retail sales of around 938,000 and a SAAR of 11.7m. This compares with 1.063m units and a SAAR of 12m last month. Fleet normally drops a bit for August, so if we assume a fleet mix of around 16.5% — down slightly from August's 17.2%, then September will end with total sales of around 1.123m and a SAAR of 14.1m. (This compares with 1.285m units and a SAAR of 14.5m last month).

Retail share-wise, compared to the same period last month, Honda and Nissan are up quite a bit; while the South Korean makes and GM are down some; and the rest are stable. See below for details.