New Vehicle Retail Demand Slumping, Edmunds Forecasts

New Vehicle Retail Demand Slumping, Edmunds Forecasts


SANTA MONICA, CA — April 26, 2017 — Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,431,695 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in April for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.0 million. This reflects nearly an 8 percent decrease in sales from March 2017, and a 4 percent decrease from April 2016.

"The industry has been holding its breath to see if the days of peak sales are over, and while Q1 sales managed to remain stable, we're starting to see the slowdown in 2017 we've been anticipating," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis. "These year-over-year declines may become more typical as the year progresses, but there's no reason to be in panic mode. Historically, car sales are still strong."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
April
2017 Forecast
April
2016
March
2017
Change from
April 2016
Change from
March 2017
GM 250,078 259,557 256,224 -3.7% -2.4%
Ford 216,438 229,739 234,895 -5.8% -7.9%
Toyota 201,031 211,125 215,224 -4.8% -6.6%
Fiat Chrysler 180,419 189,005 190,254 -4.5% -5.2%
Honda 138,813 148,829 137,227 -6.7% 1.2%
Nissan 123,714 123,861 168,832 -0.1% -26.7%
Hyundai/Kia 112,719 118,721 118,694 -5.1% -5.0%
VW/Audi 43,376 44,913 46,340 -3.4% -6.4%
Industry 1,431,695 1,491,901 1,549,991 -4.0% -7.6%
*NOTE: April 2017 had 26 selling days, April 2016 had 27 and March 2016 had 27.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.6 million vehicles in April 2017, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.5 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.6 million used vehicles will be sold in April 2017, for a SAAR of 38.4 million (compared to 3.4 million — or a SAAR of 38.4 million — in March).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share April
2017 Forecast
April
2016
March
2017
Change from
April 2016
Change from
March 2017
GM 17.5% 17.4% 16.5% 0.1% 0.9%
Ford 15.1% 15.4% 15.2% -0.3% 0.0%
Toyota 14.0% 14.2% 13.9% -0.1% 0.2%
Fiat Chrysler 12.6% 12.7% 12.3% -0.1% 0.3%
Honda 9.7% 10.0% 8.9% -0.3% 0.8%
Nissan 8.6% 8.3% 10.9% 0.3% -2.3%
Hyundai/Kia 7.9% 8.0% 7.7% -0.1% 0.2%
VW/Audi 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at https://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds is the leading car information and shopping platform, helping millions of visitors each month find their perfect car. With products like Edmunds Your Price, Your Lease and Used+, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at more than 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Edmunds' in-house team of unbiased car shopping experts provide industry-leading vehicle reviews and shopping tips, as well as welcome all car-shopping questions to the free Shopper Advice line at 1-855-782-4711, via email at help@edmunds.com, via text at ED411 and on Twitter and Facebook. The company is regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Places to Work. Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, Calif. and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Mich.

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