Calendar Abnormality Will Snap 27-Month Winning Streak for Auto Industry in September, Says

Calendar Abnormality Will Snap 27-Month Winning Streak for Auto Industry in September, Says

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — September 26, 2013 — September's auto sales are expected to snap a 27-month streak of year-over-year gains dating back to June 2011, forecasts, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information. And while September's sales look shaky on the surface, a calendar anomaly likely explains the decline: Labor Day weekend sales were included in September 2012, but Labor Day sales counted toward August in 2013.

"It looks like sales took a big hit in September, but the monthly SAAR is up year over year, and the industry is still selling more cars per day than it did last year," says Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Many of the fundamentals that have driven strong car sales over the last year are still in place, and we can expect them to contribute to a solid final quarter to close out 2013." predicts that 1,143,968 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in September for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.3 million. The projected sales will be a 23.8 percent decrease from August 2013, and a 3.7 percent decrease from September 2012.

Sales Volume Sept-13 Forecast Sept-12 Aug-13 Change from Sept 2012* Change from Aug 2013*
GM 195,610 210,245 275,847 -7.0% -29.1%
Ford 183,107 174,454 220,404 5.0% -16.9%
Toyota 169,160 171,910 231,537 -1.6% -26.9%
Chrysler Group 143,003 142,041 165,552 0.7% -13.6%
Honda 111,359 117,211 166,432 -5.0% -33.1%
Hyundai/Kia 91,672 108,130 118,126 -15.2% -22.4%
Nissan 83,749 91,907 120,498 -8.9% -30.5%
VW/Audi 41,074 48,641 54,347 -15.6% -24.4%
Industry 1,143,968 1,188,107 1,500,428 -3.7% -23.8%
*NOTE: September 2013 had 23 selling days, September 2012 had 25 and August 2013 had 28. estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 12.7 million vehicles in September, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.01 million used cars will be sold in September for a SAAR of 36.2 million (compared to 3.04 million — or a SAAR of 36.8 million — used car sales in August).

Ford and Chrysler were the bright spots in a down month for automakers. Ford is expected to see a five percent sales increase in September, while Chrysler will see sales tick up 0.7 percent. VW/Audi and Hyundai/Kia, meanwhile, are projected to take the biggest hits in September, falling 15.6 percent and 15.2 percent, respectively, from September 2012.

Market Share Sept-13 Forecast Sept-12 Aug-13 Change from September 2012 (Percentage pts.) Change from August 2013(Percentage pts.)
GM 17.1% 17.7% 18.4% -0.6% -1.3%
Ford 16.0% 14.7% 14.7% 1.3% 1.3%
Toyota 14.8% 14.5% 15.4% 0.3% -0.6%
Chrysler Group 12.5% 12.0% 11.0% 0.5% 1.5%
Honda 9.7% 9.9% 11.1% -0.1% -1.4%
Hyundai/Kia 8.0% 9.1% 7.9% -1.1% 0.1%
Nissan 7.3% 7.7% 8.0% -0.4% -0.7%
VW/Audi 3.6% 4.1% 3.6% -0.5% 0.0%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in's Industry Center at

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