Black Friday Halo Effect Expected to Boost November Auto Sales to 17.8 million, a New 2017 High

Black Friday Halo Effect Expected to Boost November Auto Sales to 17.8 million, a New 2017 High

Pre-Black Friday savings from retailers put consumers in a buying mood, giving dealers an unexpected early-month lift


SANTA MONICA, CA — November 22, 2017 — Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,422,212 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.8 million. This reflects a 5.3 percent increase in sales from October 2017, and a 3.5 percent increase from November 2016.

"Usually, the first two weeks of the month are slow, especially before a holiday," Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis said. "But this year retailers are pushing the Black Friday bargains throughout the entire month of November, and it's putting everyone in a buying mood. It also doesn't hurt that automakers are starting to really sweeten the deals to clear out lingering 2017s and end this year on a high note."

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 15.0 million vehicles in November 2017, with fleet transactions accounting for 15.9 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.9 million used vehicles will be sold in November 2017, for a SAAR of 38.9 million (compared to 3.2 million — or a SAAR of 38.9 million — in October).

"While 2017 may have gotten off to a sluggish start, strong sales through the back third of the year are making up for lost time," Caldwell said. "We expect full-year sales to be over 17 million for the third year in a row, and are still tracking near our forecast of 17.2 million."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
November
2017 Forecast
November
2016
October
2017
Change from
November 2016
Change from
October 2017
GM 257,081 252,644 252,813 1.8% 1.7%
Toyota 209,095 197,645 188,434 5.8% 11.0%
Ford 205,986 196,441 199,698 4.9% 3.1%
Fiat Chrysler 157,690 160,827 153,373 -2.0% 2.8%
Honda 137,662 122,924 127,353 12.0% 8.1%
Nissan 122,808 115,136 123,012 6.7% -0.2%
Hyundai/Kia 104,383 115,011 97,407 -9.2% 7.2%
VW/Audi 49,678 46,790 47,157 6.2% 5.3%
Industry 1,422,212 1,374,133 1,351,127 3.5% 5.3%
*NOTE: November 2017 had 25 selling days, November 2016 had 25 and October 2017 had 25.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
November
2017 Forecast
November
2016
October
2017
Change from
November 2016
Change from
October 2017
GM 18.1% 18.4% 18.7% -0.3% -0.6%
Toyota 14.7% 14.4% 13.9% 0.3% 0.8%
Ford 14.5% 14.3% 14.8% 0.2% -0.3%
Fiat Chrysler 11.1% 11.7% 11.4% -0.6% -0.3%
Honda 9.7% 8.9% 9.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Nissan 8.6% 8.4% 9.1% 0.3% -0.5%
Hyundai/Kia 7.3% 8.4% 7.2% -1.0% 0.1%
VW/Audi 3.5% 3.4% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds is the leading car information and shopping platform, helping millions of visitors each month find their perfect car. With products such as Edmunds Your Price, Your Lease and Used+, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at more than 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Edmunds' in-house team of unbiased car-shopping experts provide industry-leading vehicle reviews and shopping tips, and the company also has a 20-year-old forums community of car shoppers and enthusiasts, where members can get shopping advice and learn what others are buying and leasing cars for. The company is regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work. Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Michigan.

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