Automakers Will Ride a Wave of Consumer Confidence to Solid Sales in January, Edmunds Forecasts

SANTA MONICA, CA — January 25, 2017 — Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,153,459 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January, for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.7 million. This reflects a 31.5 percent decrease in sales from December 2016, and a 0.7 percent decrease from January 2016.

"January had the potential of being a very slow month at dealerships, given the fact that auto sales shattered records in December," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis. "But January is shaping up to be a surprisingly healthy month. The economy continues to show signs of strength and consumers are feeling confident, boosting auto sales above initial expectations."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
January
2017 Forecast
January
2016
December
2016
Change from
January 2016
Change from
December 2016
GM 206,136 203,745 319,108 1.2% -35.4%
Ford 168,963 172,478 237,785 -2.0% -28.9%
Toyota 163,106 161,283 243,229 1.1% -32.9%
Fiat Chrysler 145,172 171,352 192,519 -15.3% -24.6%
Nissan 108,275 105,734 152,743 2.4% -29.1%
Honda 107,099 100,497 160,477 6.6% -33.3%
Hyundai/Kia 82,624 83,316 116,658 -0.8% -29.2%
VW/Audi 39,420 31,929 60,424 23.5% -34.8%
Industry 1,153,459 1,161,304 1,683,533 -0.7% -31.5%
*NOTE: January 2017 had 24 selling days, January 2016 had 24 and December 2016 had 27.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.6 million vehicles in January 2017, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.3 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.1 million used vehicles will be sold in January 2017, for a SAAR of 38.4 million (compared to 2.6 million — or a SAAR of 38.2 million — in December).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
December
2016 Forecast
December
2015
November
2016
Change from
December 2015
Change from
November 2016
GM 17.9% 17.5% 19.0% 0.3% -1.1%
Ford 14.6% 14.9% 14.1% -0.2% 0.5%
Toyota 14.1% 13.9% 14.4% 0.3% -0.3%
Fiat Chrysler 12.6% 14.8% 11.4% -2.2% 1.2%
Nissan 9.4% 9.1% 9.1% 0.3% -0.3%
Honda 9.3% 8.7% 9.5% 0.6% -0.2%
Hyundai/Kia 7.2% 7.2% 6.9% 0.0% 0.2%
VW/Audi 3.4% 2.7% 3.6% 0.7% -0.2%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at https://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds is the leading car information and shopping platform, helping millions of visitors each month find their perfect car. With products like Edmunds Your Price, Your Lease and Used+, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at more than 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Edmunds' in-house team of unbiased car shopping experts provide industry-leading vehicle reviews and shopping tips, as well as welcome all car-shopping questions at our Help Center, via email at help@edmunds.com and on Twitter and Facebook. Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, Calif. and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Mich.

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