Auto Sales Expected to Dip Slightly in October, Forecasts Edmunds

Auto Sales Expected to Dip Slightly in October, Forecasts Edmunds

Incentives continue to attract more buyers in October compared to most of 2017, but increasing pressure on automakers to clear inventory expected to yield substantial end-of-year savings for car shoppers


SANTA MONICA, CA — October 25, 2017 — Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,317,738 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October, for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.6 million. This reflects a 13.3 percent decrease in sales from September 2017 and a 3.5 percent decrease from October 2016.

Edmunds analysts say that while sales continue to be slower this year compared to 2016, if incentives can entice enough car buyers to clear out the high levels of 2017 inventory then the year should still finish historically strong.

"A 17.6 million SAAR in October is expected to be the second highest monthly sales rate of 2017, so despite the year-over-year decline, the industry can still consider it a solid month," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis. "We expect to see increasingly aggressive incentives offered on outgoing models through the end of the year as automakers look to build on this momentum, so car buyers can likely anticipate some door-buster deals this holiday season."

October sales are also expected to experience a continued lift from shoppers impacted by this summer's hurricanes.

"While replacement demand in Houston was higher in September, we anticipate that hurricane recovery efforts will continue to supplement October vehicle sales in the market," Caldwell said. "In Florida, far fewer vehicles were lost to flood damage, but we expect to see an incremental boost in vehicle sales primarily from shoppers who may have delayed their purchases due to the storm."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
October
2017 Forecast
October
2016
September
2017
Change from
October 2016
Change from
September 2017
GM 239,775 258,626 279,397 -7.3% -14.2%
Ford 196,556 187,080 221,643 5.1% -11.3%
Toyota 190,969 186,295 226,632 2.5% -15.7%
Fiat Chrysler 158,742 176,609 174,266 -10.1% -8.9%
Honda 123,655 126,161 142,722 -2.0% -13.4%
Nissan 107,541 113,520 139,932 -5.3% -23.1%
Hyundai/Kia 99,560 111,482 109,475 -10.7% -9.1%
VW/Audi 45,702 42,500 51,420 7.5% -11.1%
Industry 1,317,738 1,365,756 1,519,093 -3.5% -13.3%
*NOTE: October 2017 had 25 selling days, October 2016 had 26 and September 2017 had 26.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.6 million vehicles in October 2017, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.1 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.2 million used vehicles will be sold in October 2017, for a SAAR of 38.9 million (compared to 3.2 million — or a SAAR of 38.8 million — in September).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
October
2017 Forecast
October
2016
September
2017
Change from
October 2016
Change from
September 2017
GM 18.2% 18.9% 18.4% -0.7% -0.2%
Ford 14.9% 13.7% 14.6% 1.2% 0.3%
Toyota 14.5% 13.6% 14.9% 0.9% -0.4%
Fiat Chrysler 12.0% 12.9% 11.5% -0.9% 0.6%
Honda 9.4% 9.2% 9.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Nissan 8.2% 8.3% 9.2% -0.2% -1.1%
Hyundai/Kia 7.6% 8.2% 7.2% -0.6% 0.3%
VW/Audi 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds is the leading car information and shopping platform, helping millions of visitors each month find their perfect car. With products such as Edmunds Your Price, Your Lease and Used+, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at more than 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Edmunds' in-house team of unbiased car-shopping experts provide industry-leading vehicle reviews and shopping tips, as well as welcome all car-shopping questions to the free Shopper Advice line at 1-855-782-4711, via email at help@edmunds.com, via text at ED411 and on Twitter and Facebook. The company is regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work. Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Michigan.

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