Auto Sales Expected to Dip Slightly in October, Forecasts Edmunds
SANTA MONICA, CA — October 25, 2017 — Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,317,738 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October, for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.6 million. This reflects a 13.3 percent decrease in sales from September 2017 and a 3.5 percent decrease from October 2016.
Edmunds analysts say that while sales continue to be slower this year compared to 2016, if incentives can entice enough car buyers to clear out the high levels of 2017 inventory then the year should still finish historically strong.
"A 17.6 million SAAR in October is expected to be the second highest monthly sales rate of 2017, so despite the year-over-year decline, the industry can still consider it a solid month," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis. "We expect to see increasingly aggressive incentives offered on outgoing models through the end of the year as automakers look to build on this momentum, so car buyers can likely anticipate some door-buster deals this holiday season."
October sales are also expected to experience a continued lift from shoppers impacted by this summer's hurricanes.
"While replacement demand in Houston was higher in September, we anticipate that hurricane recovery efforts will continue to supplement October vehicle sales in the market," Caldwell said. "In Florida, far fewer vehicles were lost to flood damage, but we expect to see an incremental boost in vehicle sales primarily from shoppers who may have delayed their purchases due to the storm."
| Sales Volume |
October 2017 Forecast |
October 2016 |
September 2017 |
Change from October 2016 |
Change from September 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 239,775 | 258,626 | 279,397 | -7.3% | -14.2% |
| Ford | 196,556 | 187,080 | 221,643 | 5.1% | -11.3% |
| Toyota | 190,969 | 186,295 | 226,632 | 2.5% | -15.7% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 158,742 | 176,609 | 174,266 | -10.1% | -8.9% |
| Honda | 123,655 | 126,161 | 142,722 | -2.0% | -13.4% |
| Nissan | 107,541 | 113,520 | 139,932 | -5.3% | -23.1% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 99,560 | 111,482 | 109,475 | -10.7% | -9.1% |
| VW/Audi | 45,702 | 42,500 | 51,420 | 7.5% | -11.1% |
| Industry | 1,317,738 | 1,365,756 | 1,519,093 | -3.5% | -13.3% |
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.6 million vehicles in October 2017, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.1 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.2 million used vehicles will be sold in October 2017, for a SAAR of 38.9 million (compared to 3.2 million — or a SAAR of 38.8 million — in September).
| Market Share |
October 2017 Forecast |
October 2016 |
September 2017 |
Change from October 2016 |
Change from September 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 18.2% | 18.9% | 18.4% | -0.7% | -0.2% |
| Ford | 14.9% | 13.7% | 14.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Toyota | 14.5% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 0.9% | -0.4% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 12.0% | 12.9% | 11.5% | -0.9% | 0.6% |
| Honda | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nissan | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | -0.2% | -1.1% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| VW/Audi | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
About Edmunds
Edmunds is the leading car information and shopping platform, helping millions of visitors each month find their perfect car. With products such as Edmunds Your Price, Your Lease and Used+, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at more than 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Edmunds' in-house team of unbiased car-shopping experts provide industry-leading vehicle reviews and shopping tips, as well as welcome all car-shopping questions at our Help Center, via email at help@edmunds.com and on Twitter and Facebook. The company is regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work. Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Michigan.
