September Auto Sales Expected to Hit New 2017 High, Edmunds Forecasts

September Auto Sales Expected to Hit New 2017 High, Edmunds Forecasts

Labor Day discounts, higher incentives push SAAR to 17.5 million for the first time this year


SANTA MONICA, CA — September 27, 2017 — Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,435,375 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in September for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.5 million. This is the highest SAAR so far in 2017; the previous highs were set in January and February, which both had a SAAR of 17.3 million. This rate reflects a 2.9 percent decrease in sales from August 2017 and a 0.4 percent increase from September 2016.

Edmunds analysts say this slight year-over-year increase is due in part to automakers pumping up the deals over the Labor Day holiday; typically, auto sales over Labor Day weekend are 33 percent higher than the average first weekend of a month.

"Labor Day weekend got September auto sales off to strong start," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis. "Automakers are finally starting to dial up the incentives to clear excess inventory, which we anticipate will continue through the rest of the year."

September sales are also expected to get a slight lift from buyers who needed to replace vehicles that were destroyed in the recent hurricanes.

"We anticipate that the recovery from the recent hurricanes will give vehicle sales an incremental boost in September, and will likely continue to slightly lift the market in the months to come," Caldwell said. "When you have hundreds of thousands of people affected by an event of this magnitude, not everyone will hit the market at once."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
September
2017 Forecast
September
2016
August
2017
Change from
September 2016
Change from
August 2017
GM 268,248 249,795 275,552 7.4% -2.7%
Toyota 215,130 197,260 227,625 9.1% -5.5%
Ford 212,976 203,444 209,029 4.7% 1.9%
Fiat Chrysler 171,782 192,883 176,033 -10.9% -2.4%
Honda 135,567 133,655 146,015 1.4% -7.2%
Nissan 114,821 127,797 108,326 -10.2% 6.0%
Hyundai/Kia 102,585 115,830 107,633 -11.4% -4.7%
VW/Audi 46,963 41,729 51,826 12.5% -9.4%
Industry 1,435,375 1,430,273 1,478,581 0.4% -2.9%
*NOTE: September 2017 had 26 selling days, September 2016 had 25 and August 2017 had 27.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 15.0 million vehicles in September 2017, with fleet transactions accounting for 14.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.19 million used vehicles will be sold in September 2017, for a SAAR of 38.8 million (compared to 3.33 million — or a SAAR of 39.0 million — in August).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
September
2017 Forecast
September
2016
August
2017
Change from
September 2016
Change from
August 2017
GM 18.7% 17.5% 18.6% 1.2% 0.1%
Toyota 15.0% 13.8% 15.4% 1.2% -0.4%
Ford 14.8% 14.2% 14.1% 0.6% 0.7%
Fiat Chrysler 12.0% 13.5% 11.9% -1.5% 0.1%
Honda 9.4% 9.3% 9.9% 0.1% -0.4%
Nissan 8.0% 8.9% 7.3% -0.9% 0.7%
Hyundai/Kia 7.1% 8.1% 7.3% -1.0% -0.1%
VW/Audi 3.3% 2.9% 3.5% 0.4% -0.2%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds is the leading car information and shopping platform, helping millions of visitors each month find their perfect car. With products such as Edmunds Your Price, Your Lease and Used+, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at more than 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Edmunds' in-house team of unbiased car-shopping experts provide industry-leading vehicle reviews and shopping tips, as well as welcome all car-shopping questions to the free Shopper Advice line at 1-855-782-4711, via email at help@edmunds.com, via text at ED411 and on Twitter and Facebook. The company is regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work. Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Michigan.

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