Auto Sales to Enjoy Best October Since 2001, Forecasts Edmunds.com

Auto Sales to Enjoy Best October Since 2001, Forecasts Edmunds.com

Volkswagen's Struggles from Diesel Crisis Seen as Black Mark on Otherwise Strong Sales Projections


SANTA MONICA, Calif. — October 22, 2015 — Car shopping destination Edmunds.com forecasts that 1,424,568 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.8 million. The projected sales will be a one percent decrease from September 2015, but an 11.5 percent increase from October 2014. Edmunds projects that the sales volume and SAAR will be the biggest for an October since 2001.

One month after the news of Volkswagen's diesel "cheat device" crisis broke, October sales data suggest that the company is fighting to grow its overall sales. Edmunds projects VW and Audi will combine to grow sales 5.1 percent from October 2014. However, a closer look at the individual brands suggests that Audi is responsible for all of that growth: Edmunds forecasts that Audi's October sales will increase 15.3 percent year over year, while Volkswagen's brand sales will remain flat from October 2014.

"In this year of booming auto sales, no automaker should be relieved to see flat year-over-year performance, but this may be the best that Volkswagen can hope for this month," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Until VW starts down a road to recovery by informing owners of a specific fix to their diesel vehicles, the company is likely to make far fewer sales than this surging market would otherwise deliver to them."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume October 2015 Forecast October 2014 September 2015 Change from October 2014 Change from September 2015
GM 254,050 226,819 251,310 12.0% 1.1%
Ford 214,603 187,897 221,269 14.2% -3.0%
FCA 194,313 170,480 193,019 14.0% 0.7%
Toyota 194,255 180,580 194,399 7.6% -0.1%
Honda 130,730 121,172 133,750 7.9% -2.3%
Nissan 112,357 103,117 121,782 9.0% -7.7%
Hyundai/Kia 107,373 94,775 113,835 13.3% -5.7%
VW/Audi 47,789 45,463 43,481 5.1% 9.9%
Industry 1,424,568 1,277,844 1,439,016 11.5% -1.0%
*NOTE: October 2015 had 28 selling days, October 2014 had 27 and September 2015 had 25.

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.9 million vehicles in October, with fleet transactions accounting for 16.4 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.14 million used cars will be sold in October, for a SAAR of 37.2 million (compared to 3.04 million — or a SAAR of 37.9 million — used car sales in September).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share October 2015 Forecast October 2014 September 2015 Change from October 2014 Change from September 2015
GM 17.8% 17.8% 17.5% 0.1% 0.4%
Ford 15.1% 14.7% 15.4% 0.4% -0.3%
FCA 13.6% 13.3% 13.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Toyota 13.6% 14.1% 13.5% -0.5% 0.1%
Honda 9.2% 9.5% 9.3% -0.3% -0.1%
Nissan 7.9% 8.1% 8.5% -0.2% -0.6%
Hyundai/Kia 7.5% 7.4% 7.9% 0.1% -0.4%
VW/Audi 3.4% 3.6% 3.0% -0.2% 0.3%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds.com
Car shopping destination Edmunds.com serves nearly 20 million visitors each month. With Edmunds.com Price Promise®, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at 10,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Shoppers can browse not only dealer inventory, but also vehicle reviews, shopping tips, photos, videos and feature stories on both Edmunds' wired site and on its acclaimed mobile apps. Regarded as one of the best places to work in Southern California, Edmunds.com was also named one of "The World's Top 10 Most Innovative Companies of 2015 in Automotive" by Fast Company. Edmunds welcomes all car-shopping questions on its free Live Help Line at 1-855-782-4711 and help@edmunds.com, via text at ED411 and on Twitter and Facebook. The company is based in Santa Monica, Calif. and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Mich., but you can find Edmunds from anywhere on YouTube, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Instagram, Google+ and Flipboard.

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