2019 New Vehicle Sales Expected to Close on a High Note, Edmunds Forecasts
Edmunds analysts forecast that 17.1 million new vehicles will be sold in 2019, marking the 5th year in a row new auto sales to top 17 million

SANTA MONICA, CA — December 19, 2019 — The car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast that 4,340,488 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of this year. This reflects a 0.3% increase in sales from the third quarter but a 0.8% decrease from Q4 of 2018. Edmunds analysts estimate 17,145,333 new vehicles will be sold in total in 2019, marking the fifth year in a row that new vehicle sales will top 17 million.

"The fact that new car sales have stayed this strong for this long really defies the odds, especially given that high interest rates and record prices squeezed buyers this year," said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds senior manager of industry insights. "But if 2019 taught us anything, it's that you can't underestimate the power of a strong economy."

In 2019, consumers also solidified their move away from passenger cars in favor of SUVs and trucks. In Q4, Edmunds estimates SUVs will garner more than 50% market share for the first time, and market share for pickup trucks will also hover above 19%, a level not seen since 2005. Conversely, market share for passenger cars is expected to hit an all-time low of around 26% in the fourth quarter.

Edmunds analysts note that the traditional year-end holiday sales events are expected to keep dealerships busy in late December, giving automakers positive momentum heading into 2020. Edmunds analysts predict 2020 will be another solid year for new vehicle sales, estimating new car sales will again total 17.1 million.

"When there's been such a long streak of strong sales, it's natural to wonder when the other shoe will drop, but we don't see that happening anytime soon," Acevedo said. "Financing conditions are already looking much better than they did at the start of 2019, unemployment is at an all-time low, uncertainties around tariffs seem to be somewhat alleviated thanks to the new USMCA agreement, and we're about to head into an election year, which historically yields stronger sales. Automakers have many reasons to be optimistic heading into the new year."

Q4 2019
Q4 2018 Q3 2019 Change from
Q4 2018
Change from
Q3 2019
GM 743,618 785,229 738,638 -5.3% 0.7%
Toyota 620,984 602,435 627,194 3.1% -1.0%
Ford 605,944 609,693 580,251 -0.6% 4.4%
Fiat Chrysler 537,652 555,221 565,034 -3.2% -4.8%
Honda 415,814 397,831 429,214 4.5% -3.1%
Hyundai/Kia 345,532 313,876 334,834 10.1% 3.2%
Nissan 305,877 369,195 327,354 -17.2% -6.6%
VW/Audi 153,276 143,739 150,578 6.6% 1.8%
Industry 4,340,488 4,376,282 4,327,546 -0.8% 0.3%

Q4 2019
Q4 2018 Q3 2019 Change from
Q4 2018
Change from
Q3 2019
GM 17.1% 17.9% 17.1% -4.5% 0.4%
Toyota 14.3% 13.8% 14.5% 3.9% -1.3%
Ford 14.0% 13.9% 13.4% 0.2% 4.1%
Fiat Chrysler 12.4% 12.7% 13.1% -2.4% -5.1%
Honda 9.6% 9.1% 9.9% 5.4% -3.4%
Hyundai/Kia 8.0% 7.2% 7.7% 11.0% 2.9%
Nissan 7.0% 8.4% 7.6% -16.5% -6.8%
VW/Audi 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 7.5% 1.5%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at https://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America’s best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

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