New Vehicle Sales Expected to Lift Slightly in the Third Quarter, Edmunds Forecasts
Despite a dip in September sales, analysts forecast a year-over-year increase in quarterly sales for the first time in 2019

SANTA MONICA, CA — September 25, 2019 — Thanks to two fewer selling days and an early Labor Day holiday, the car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast September will be a down month for the auto industry, forecasting that 1,267,607 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.1 million. This reflects a 23% decrease in sales from August 2019 and an 11.6% decrease from September 2018.

"September auto sales look a little bleak on paper, but it's just a matter of a tough year-over-year comparison," explained Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' senior manager of industry analysis. "This is one of those times when you have to look at the full quarter to get a more accurate perspective of what's really happening in the market."

Edmunds experts forecast that 4,317,448 new cars and trucks will be sold in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting a 3.1% decrease from the second quarter of 2019, but a 0.8% increase from the third quarter of 2018. This would mark the first quarter this year that auto sales will be up on a quarterly basis compared to 2018.

"All year long we've been talking about high prices and rising interest rates keeping shoppers on the sidelines, but in the third quarter those pressures eased up just enough to get consumers back in a buying mood," Acevedo said. "If this momentum continues, we expect a solid finish to the year."

SEPTEMBER SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
September
2019 Forecast
September
2018
August
2019
Change from
September 2018
Change from
August 2019
GM* 223,746 236,000 290,000 -5.2% -22.8%
Toyota 180,595 203,098 248,334 -11.1% -27.3%
Fiat Chrysler* 174,302 199,819 214,000 -12.8% -18.6%
Ford* 170,179 196,496 209,000 -13.4% -18.6%
Honda 120,274 132,668 173,993 -9.3% -30.9%
Hyundai/Kia 98,654 108,862 123,994 -9.4% -20.4%
Nissan 98,299 122,819 127,230 -20.0% -22.7%
VW/Audi 42,334 49,874 56,943 -15.1% -25.7%
Tesla 13,762 - - - -
Industry 1,267,607 1,433,664 1,646,395 -11.6% -23.0%

*GM sales totals for September 2018 are estimated, FCA, Ford, and GM sales totals for August 2019 are estimated

**NOTE: September 2019 had 23 selling days, September 2018 had 25 and August 2019 had 23.

                                                           

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.7 million vehicles in September 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.8% of total sales. An estimated 3.3 million used vehicles will be sold in September 2019, for a SAAR of 39.7 million (compared to 3.4 million — or a SAAR of 39.8 million — in August).

 
SEPTEMBER MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
September
2019 Forecast
September
2018
August
2019
Change from
September 2018
Change from
August 2019
GM 17.7% 16.5% 17.6% 1.2% 0.1%
Toyota 14.2% 14.2% 15.1% 0.1% -0.8%
Fiat Chrysler 13.8% 13.9% 13.0% -0.2% 0.8%
Ford 13.4% 13.7% 12.8% -0.3% 0.7%
Honda 9.5% 9.3% 10.6% 0.2% -1.1%
Hyundai/Kia 7.8% 7.6% 7.5% 0.2% 0.3%
Nissan 7.8% 8.6% 7.7% -0.8% 0.0%
VW/Audi 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% -0.1% -0.1%
Tesla 1.1% - - - -
 
Q3 SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
 
Sales
Volume
Q3 2019
Forecast
Q3 2018 Q2 2019 Change from
Q3 2018
Change from
Q2 2019
GM 748,746 694,638 746,659 7.8% 0.3%
Toyota 638,133 634,923 607,927 0.5% 5.0%
Fiat Chrysler 558,302 564,507 597,685 -1.1% -6.6%
Ford 570,179 606,939 643,000 -6.1% -11.3%
Honda 435,563 419,173 407,208 3.9% 7.0%
Hyundai/Kia 335,359 325,132 359,796 3.1% -6.8%
Nissan 324,409 343,987 351,185 -5.7% -7.6%
VW/Audi 149,835 152,777 152,061 -1.9% -1.5%
Industry 4,317,448 4,284,576 4,454,299 0.8% -3.1%
 
Q3 MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
 
Market
Share
Q3 2019
Forecast
Q3 2018 Q2 2019 Change from
Q3 2018
Change from
Q2 2019
GM 17.3% 16.2% 16.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Toyota 14.8% 14.8% 13.6% 0.0% 1.1%
Fiat Chrysler 12.9% 13.2% 13.4% -0.2% -0.5%
Ford 13.2% 14.2% 14.4% -1.0% -1.2%
Honda 10.1% 9.8% 9.1% 0.3% 0.9%
Hyundai/Kia 7.8% 7.6% 8.1% 0.2% -0.3%
Nissan 7.5% 8.0% 7.9% -0.5% -0.4%
VW/Audi 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% -0.1% 0.1%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at Edmunds Industry Center.

About Edmunds
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