New Vehicle Sales Dip in June to Close Out a Down First Half of 2019, Forecasts Edmunds
Although sales are down slightly year over year, analysts predict a SAAR of 17.2 million as automakers, dealers take steps toward rightsizing mounting inventory

SANTA MONICA, CA — June 27, 2019 — The car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast that 1,501,158 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in June for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.2 million. This reflects a 5.4% decrease in sales from May 2019, and a 3.3% decrease from June 2018. 2019 sales through June are expected to be down by 2.5% year over year.

"June auto sales aren't hitting the same levels that they did last year, but they aren't dropping off a cliff either," said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' manager of industry analysis. "The strength of the economy has kept retail demand in decent shape despite the higher interest rates, rising vehicle costs and other headwinds that have been placing pressure on the new vehicle market so far this year, but we're expecting to see the industry continue to settle into a slower sales pace as we head into the rest of 2019."

Although Edmunds analysts predict a SAAR above 17 million for the third time of the year in June, they caution that these numbers might be slightly propped up by automakers falling back into old habits when faced with mounting inventory levels.

"Old vehicles are stacking up on dealer lots, and automakers are relying on fleet sales a little more than they probably should to clear them out," said Acevedo.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.4 million vehicles in June 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 20.3% of total sales. An estimated 3.4 million used vehicles will be sold in June 2019, for a SAAR of 39.4 million (compared to 3.5 million — or a SAAR of 39.6 million — in May).

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
June
2019 Forecast
June
2018
May
2019
Change from
June 2018
Change from
May 2019
GM* 243,283 255,882 260,000 -4.9% -6.4%
Ford* 215,245 229,537 232,000 -6.2% -7.2%
Fiat Chrysler 201,323 202,264 218,702 -0.5% -7.9%
Toyota 200,314 209,601 222,174 -4.4% -9.8%
Honda 136,693 146,563 145,532 -6.7% -6.1%
Nissan 130,264 145,096 131,983 -10.2% -1.3%
Hyundai/Kia 123,573 120,623 128,496 2.4% -3.8%
VW/Audi 46,845 48,412 54,594 -3.2% -14.2%
Tesla 25,925 - - - -
Industry 1,501,158 1,551,655 1,586,757 -3.3% -5.4%

*GM sales totals for June 2018 are estimated, GM & Ford sales totals for May 2019 are estimated

**NOTE: June 2019 had 26 selling days, June 2018 had 27 and May 2019 had 26.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.8 million vehicles in May 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 18.9% of total sales. An estimated 3.4 million used vehicles will be sold in May 2019, for a SAAR of 39.2 million (compared to 3.5 million — or a SAAR of 39.1 million — in April).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
June
2019 Forecast
June
2018
May
2019
Change from
June 2018
Change from
May 2019
GM* 16.2% 16.5% 16.4% -0.3% -0.2%
Ford* 14.3% 14.8% 14.6% -0.5% -0.3%
Fiat Chrysler 13.4% 13.0% 13.8% 0.4% -0.4%
Toyota 13.3% 13.5% 14.0% -0.2% -0.7%
Honda 9.1% 9.4% 9.2% -0.3% -0.1%
Nissan 8.7% 9.4% 8.3% -0.7% 0.4%
Hyundai/Kia 8.2% 7.8% 8.1% 0.5% 0.1%
VW/Audi 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 0.0% -0.3%
Tesla 1.7% - - - -

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center athttps://www.edmunds.com/industry/insights.html.

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us onTwitter,Facebook andInstagram.

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