New Vehicle Sales Expected to Drop in June, Closing a Second Down Quarter in 2020, Edmunds Forecasts
Analysts forecast a healthier-than-expected SAAR of 12.8 million in June as the country expands reopening and more consumers resume car purchases, but warn that new market factors could create trouble ahead

SANTA MONICA, CA — June 25, 2020 — The car shopping experts at Edmunds say that June will be another down month for auto sales as the industry continues to combat market challenges posed by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, forecasting that 1,080,656 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in June for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 12.8 million. This reflects a 28.7% decrease in sales from June 2019 and a 3.6% decrease from May 2020.

Edmunds experts note that sales are also down for the second quarter in a row this year, forecasting sales of 2,914,860 new cars and trucks in the second quarter, which reflects a 34.3% decrease from the second quarter of 2019.

"It comes as no surprise that the second quarter was a disappointing one for the automotive industry, but the good news is that auto sales didn't come to a complete standstill either," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "The fact that retail sales — not fleet — are what kept the market propped up speaks volumes to the resilience of the American consumer. And the way that dealers were quick to pivot to online sales also underscores the incredibly responsive and resourceful nature of the industry in the face of adversity."

Although Edmunds data shows a steady growth in sales since the end of March, analysts caution that some of the strains of the pandemic are starting to show as more shoppers return to the market.

"The marketplace is growing less inviting as automakers pull back on incentives and inventory dwindles due to factory shutdowns, particularly when it comes to trucks, which have been the one bright spot for sales during the pandemic," said Caldwell. "Current sales paint an optimistic picture given the circumstances, but between COVID-19 and today's politically charged climate, the industry needs to prepare for uncertainties ahead."


JUNE SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
2020 June
Forecast
June 2019 May 2020 Change from
June 2019
Change from
May 2020
GM 167,499 253,879 176,874 -34.0% -5.3%
Toyota 159,752 201,887 165,055 -20.9% -3.2%
Ford 143,192 218,691 154,775 -34.5% -7.5%
FCA 126,496 206,083 135,542 -38.6% -6.7%
Honda 111,377 135,901 120,977 -18.0% -7.9%
Hyundai/Kia 103,812 122,890 104,786 -15.5% -0.9%
Nissan 66,922 123,504 65,065 -45.8% 2.9%
VW/Audi 37,421 51,134 37,212 -26.8% 0.6%
Industry 1,080,656 1,516,579 1,121,126 -28.7% -3.6%

*NOTE: June 2020 had 25 selling days, June 2019 had 26 and May 2020 had 26.

                                                           

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 11.1 million vehicles in June 2020, with fleet transactions accounting for 13.0% of total sales.


JUNE MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
2020 June
Forecast
June 2019 May 2020 Change from
June 2019
Change from
May 2020
GM 15.5% 16.7% 15.8% -7.4% -1.8%
Toyota 14.8% 13.3% 14.7% 11.0% 0.4%
Ford 13.3% 14.4% 13.8% -8.1% -4.0%
FCA 11.7% 13.6% 12.1% -13.9% -3.2%
Honda 10.3% 9.0% 10.8% 15.0% -4.5%
Hyundai/Kia 9.6% 8.1% 9.3% 18.6% 2.8%
Nissan 6.2% 8.1% 5.8% -24.0% 6.7%
VW/Audi 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 2.7% 4.3%

Q2 SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
SALES
VOLUME
2020 Q2
Forecast
Q2 2019 Q1 2020 Change from
Q2 2019
Change from
Q1 2020
GM 482,362 745,354 617,468 -35.3% -21.9%
Ford 417,558 644,498 514,614 -35.2% -18.9%
Toyota 409,501 607,927 495,747 -32.6% -17.4%
FCA 353,787 597,685 446,768 -40.8% -20.8%
Honda 290,105 407,208 298,784 -28.8% -2.9%
Hyundai/Kia 275,077 359,796 272,775 -23.5% 0.8%
Nissan 178,274 351,185 257,606 -49.2% -30.8%
VW/Audi 100,311 152,061 120,589 -34.0% -16.8%
Industry 2,914,860 4,438,956 3,503,354 -34.3% -16.8%

Q2 MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
2020 Q2
Forecast
Q2 2019 Q1 2020 Change from
Q2 2019
Change from
Q1 2020
GM 16.5% 16.8% 17.6% -1.4% -6.1%
Ford 14.3% 14.5% 14.7% -1.3% -2.5%
Toyota 14.0% 13.7% 14.2% 2.6% -0.7%
FCA 12.1% 13.5% 12.8% -9.9% -4.8%
Honda 10.0% 9.2% 8.5% 8.5% 16.7%
Hyundai/Kia 9.4% 8.1% 7.8% 16.4% 21.2%
Nissan 6.1% 7.9% 7.4% -22.7% -16.8%
VW/Audi 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at https://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

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