I tweeted last week that early February sales data looked promising. This week, the data suggests that the early strong pace is continuing. Retail sales are tracking to finish the month around 853,000 units for a SAAR of 11.2 million (compared to around 691,000 or 10.7 million SAAR last month). Assuming a normal fleet mix of around 21 percent, then February will rack up total sales of around 1.08 million, for a SAAR of 14.2 million. (This compares with 913,000 and a SAAR of 14.1 million last month. Last month we also saw fleet at an unusually high 24.1 percent).
Looking at changes in retail share, compared to the same period last month, Chrysler and BMW are up somewhat, while Volkswagen and Honda are down a bit. Most are relatively stable. Here are details:
One factor to take into account when considering how sales will play out for the rest of the year is the benign weather that most of the country has recently experienced. This might account for much of the strong sales tempo and suggest that March might not see its usual jump in sales. Guess we will know soon enough...
