July Car Sales Are Best Since 2006

July car sales kicked off a strong start to the second half of 2013, with sales totaling 1,328,397 vehicles for a Seasonally Adjusted annual Rate (SAAR) of sales at 15.6 million vehicles, making the month the best July since 2006.

Though July car sales were down 6 percent from June, were up 15 percent from July 2012. That put the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of sales at 15.6 million vehicles, lower than June's 15.9 million but still the second highest SAAR of the year and one of the highest in many years.

July car sales and the SAAR weren't as high as many analysts had expected. Edmunds.com had forecasted 1,312,988 vehicle sales — a number that proved to be just over 15,000 units too high — for a SAAR of 15.8 million. While on the surface missing consensus forecasts seems like bad news, it actually was not. Generally, analysts overestimated the level of fleet sales to commercial entities, governments and rental car companies. Edmunds.com, which had anticipated to some degree lower fleet sales, estimates fleets accounted for a very low 14 percent in July.

The good news is that July's high sales were driven by ordinary individuals coming into dealerships one at a time and buying new vehicles at retail. And they were buying all kinds of vehicles. Kurt McNeil, General Motors' vice president of U.S. sales, said it best. "July was the most well-balanced month of the year from a retail standpoint: trucks were hot but so were small cars and family vehicles." That was true for GM but also for the entire U.S. auto industry, noted Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell.

"Generally, late spring and summer is a slow time of the year for trucks sales, but we've seen substantial growth in the truck market," said Caldwell. "Combine that with the seasonal strength of small cars, good availability of cheap credit and continued unleashing of pent-up demand, and you have a booming vehicle sales market."

Another piece of good news for automakers, though not necessarily consumers, was the fact that July car sales weren't particularly driven by higher overall incentives. Edmunds.com estimates incentives were up 10 percent from July 2012 but down 2 percent from June.

Chrysler, Ford, General Motors and Toyota increased incentives from July a year ago whereas Honda and Nissan reduced incentives from last year. Nissan is replacing incentives with price cuts. Compared with June, Ford and Honda reduced incentives, GM remained flat, and Chrysler, Nissan and Toyota increased their incentives in July. Chrysler, which cut its fleet sales by nearly a third in July, increased its incentives nearly 10 percent from July 2012 and 9 percent from June to about $3,044 per vehicle. But Toyota, while still relatively low on incentives compared with the Detroit Three, raised its incentives the most from last year; they were up 20 percent from a year ago and 3 percent from June.

SECOND-HALF OUTLOOK: Auto executives expressed confidence that the second half of 2013 would be strong. Among them, Toyota Division chief Bill Fay said: "Solid industry sales in July point to a stable market indicating a recovering economy. Consumer confidence also maintained elevated levels as evidenced by strong retail sales."

GENERAL MOTORS: General Motors Co. sold 234,071 vehicles in July, up 16 percent compared with a year ago. GM said retail sales increased 23 percent, while fleet sales declined 6 percent. Within those fleet sales, GM said sales to small business customers increased 61 percent including a 107-percent hike in full-size pickup sales.

GM's timing for its new full-size pickup trucks, the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, is proving impeccable and fortuitous with truck sales across the industry on the upswing throughout the first half of the year and promising to be even more robust in the second half. GM's nationwide advertising rollout for the trucks began last month and while only 15 percent of Silverado and Sierra sales in July were of the new 2014 variety, sales were up a hefty 45 percent for the Silverado and 49 percent for the Sierra. GM currently is selling on the crew cab version of the new truck. Double-cab models are just beginning to arrive at dealerships. Regular cab production begins late summer.

At the same time, however, GM's car sales were up a substantial 24 percent, including a 42-percent climb in sales of its mini, small and compact car sales. All four brands posted double-digit increases.

Chevrolet sales were up 17 percent in total, not only because of strong Silverado sales but also because Chevrolet car sales were up 31 percent. Chevy car sales were driven by a record month for the mini Spark, now becoming available as an electric car. Its sales were up 164 percent at 3,847 cars sold. The Chevrolet Cruze cruised to another record, up a whopping 70 percent to 25,447 units. The highly-praised Chevrolet Impala had a 38-percent rise to 12,915 cars sold. Camaro sales rose 15 percent to 7,969 units. Malibu sales were up only 1 percent at 12,473 cars sold. Chevrolet Volt sales dipped 3 percent to 1,788 vehicles. Sales of the Corvette, in sell-down mode before the new model arrives, dropped 32 percent. On the SUV side, Traverse sales soared 33 percent to 7,616 units. The soon-to-be-replaced Tahoe had an 18-percent increase. Equinox was off 7 percent, though GM said it was the best retail July for the SUV.

Buick sales were up 14 percent, on the strength of the Enclave (up 14 percent to 4,963 units sold) and new Encore, which chipped in 3,176 units. Verano sales dropped 15 percent to 3,621 cars. LaCrosse and Regal sales dropped double digits.

Awaiting the fall arrival of the revamped CTS, which had sales down 39 percent to 2,889 units, Cadillac sales in total rose 17 percent, thanks to a 69-percent surge in XTS sales to 2,94 units, and 2,905 sales of the ATS, which launched last August. Escalade EXT sales were up, SRX sales were flat and the rest of the line was down.

GMC sales rose 14 percent with improvement in almost every model, led by the Sierra. GMC Terrain had its best July with sales up 24 percent. Yukon sales were up 27 percent; Yukon XL up 12 percent.

FORD: Ford Motor Co. sales in July were 193,715, an increase of 11 percent compared with July 2012, and the company's best July in seven years. There was strength from nearly every corner of Ford's showroom, with the Lincoln brand the only drag on the July sales report.

It was a fine month for Ford's small vehicles, which, led by the Fiesta subcompact, Focus compact and C-Max wagon, were up a combined 32 percent, the company crowed, although much of the increase was driven by the outsized 89-percent rise for the Fiesta (to 7,667 sales). Consumers may well have turned to the Fiesta due to shortages of the Focus, noted Edmunds.com's Caldwell. The Focus' 16,764 sales amounted to a slight decline. The typical Focus sits on the dealer lot only 38 days compared with 61 for the industry in total. Ford sold 2,700 hybrid C-Max models, which were not on sale last July.

The small-car rise also masked a rare down month for the Fusion midsize sedan, which slid 12 percent on 20,522 sales; the Fusion's drop is in part a symptom of a marked overall industry decline in fleet sales in July. But more important, it is a sign of supply shortages. Edmunds.com data shows the Fusion has the lowest days to turn in the midsize car segment. The regular Fusion stays on the late an average of only 29 days; the hybrid and Energi versions only 19 days. The industry average of days to turn — the time from a car being delivered to a dealership until it is sold to a consumer, is more than double that at 61 days. Ford is adding Fusion capacity to its Flat Rock, Mich., plant this fall to ease the inventory pressure.

The Mustang also was off in July, dropping 22 percent to 5,768 sales, leaving total Ford car sales for the month up just 5 percent.

As has become routine in the burgeoning recovery, the F-Series pickup line again was a leading force for Ford, in July selling 60,449 pickups for a 23-percent hike; the month marked two years of month-over-month sales increases for the F-Series line. In all, Ford trucks were up 20 percent in July, with every model posting sales gains and despite the loss of the Ranger midsize pickup.

Meanwhile, a record-setting pace for the white-hot Escape compact crossover was maintained in July: with 22,343 deliveries (a 4-percent increase compared with last July), the Escape outsold every Ford car and was second only to the F-Series in total volume. But the Escape was far from the only high achiever: every Ford utility vehicle saw an upswing in July, including a rare gain for the Flex wagon, which was up 16 percent on 2,689 sales. With a plump 12,742 sales, the Explorer midsize crossover gained 13 percent. Ford also is struggling with low inventories of the Explorer, with a days-to-turn rate even lower than the Fusion's at 28 days. The Edge two-row midsizer sold 10,541 copies for a 15-percent increase compared with last July.

In a month of a double-digit upswing for the total industry, Ford's upscale Lincoln unit was down 1 percent as the brand continues to seek traction from its in-transition model lineup. Although Lincoln's volume leader for the month was the redesigned MKZ midsize sedan, its 2,809 sales nonetheless marked a 7-percent slide. The MKX midsize crossover gained 16 percent to 2,002 sales and for whatever reason, the ancient Navigator posted a sales gain in July, jumping 21 percent to 633 sales.

TOYOTA: Toyota Motor Sales, which includes the Toyota, Lexus and Scion brands, reported sales of 193,394 vehicles, an increase of 17 percent from a year ago. Toyota Division sold 173,063 vehicles, up 16 percent from a year ago. Company executives boasted again that Toyota Division was the No. 1 retail brand for the fourth consecutive month. Lexus sales climbed 26 percent to 23,031 vehicles. Scion dropped 9 percent to 6,261 vehicles.

The Toyota Camry remained America's best-selling car in July — its best July since 2010 — after the Honda Accord closed the gap significantly in June. Toyota sold 34,780 Camrys, up 16 percent from last July. Toyota executives have vowed to do what it takes to keep the top spot. But it is coming at a cost, noted Edmunds.com's Caldwell.

"Camry incentives are at their highest level in nearly two years and were four times more than those on the Honda Accord," she said. "Toyota outspent all of its direct Camry competitors with the exception of Chevrolet Malibu, Volkswagen Passat and Kia Optima."

The Toyota Prius family posted double-digit gains for the hybrid's best-ever July. Toyota Motor Sales, in total, sold 37 percent more hybrids than it did a year ago, for a 60 percent market share, the automaker claimed.

The redesigned Avalon had triple-digit gains to 5,569 units. Yaris sales rose 38 percent; sales of the soon-to-be-replaced Corolla were up 4 percent.

Toyota also is riding the surge in truck sales. Sales of the Tundra rose 7 percent; the smaller Tacoma had a 22-percent increase. The new RAV4 had a 28-percent sales surge for its sixth consecutive record-setting month to nearly 20,000 units. Sienna minivan sales rose more than 10 percent, topping 10,000 units. On the truck and SUV side, only the 4Runner, Venza and Land Cruiser saw declines.

At Scion, every model posted a sales decline.

At Lexus, the IS, ES and LS led the gains. The IS posted a 59-percent gain. ES was up 62 percent from a year ago. LS rose 23 percent. The RX climbed 14 percent.

"The all-new IS is off to a great start in attracting new, younger male customers to the Lexus brand," said Jeff Bracken, Lexus group vice president and general manager. "With new products such as the IS and widespread availability of core models including the ES and RX, we are looking forward to a strong August to set the pace for the rest of the year."

CHRYSLER: Chrysler Group LLC sold 140,102 vehicles, an 11-percent increase from 2012 and the group's best July sales since 2006, but performance was spotty with trucks and SUVs accounting for the gain. Jeep, Dodge, Ram and Fiat all posted increases; Chrysler sales were down. Six Chrysler Group vehicles set sales records.

"We continue to see strong retail sales, particularly with our pickup trucks and SUVs, and that has helped to propel Chrysler Group to our 40th-consecutive month of year-over-year sales growth," said Reid Bigland, U.S. sales chief.

Many analysts predicted higher sales from Chrysler. However, the automaker is deliberately lowering fleet sales, which mainly have been to rental car companies. In July, Chrysler cut fleet sales by a third. At the same time, it boosted incentives to consumers significantly, 10 percent higher than a year ago and 9 percent higher than June to more than $3,000 per vehicle.

The Ram Brand posted a hefty 31-percent sales hike with Ram pickup sales up 31 percent to 31,314 trucks and Ram Cargo Van sales up 38 percent to 764 units.

Dodge sales surged by 18 percent to 41,986, largely on the strength of the Durango, which had an 88-percent hike to 5,135 units. Avenger sales rose 18 percent to 6,131 units. The Dart, new last year, kicked in 6,064 units of sales. Other Dodge models saw sales declines.

With sales up a scant 2 percent, the Jeep brand, nevertheless, is doing phenomenally well, considering it is down a player. The Liberty was discontinued last summer, and its replacement, the Jeep Cherokee, goes on sale this fall. Every Jeep model in July posted substantial double-digit sales gains: Compass, up 27 percent; Patriot, up 29 percent; Wrangler, up 18 percent; and Grand Cherokee, up 30 percent .

The Chrysler brand's performance was not good, however. Sales of its three models were down 4 percent with the 200 and Town & Country minivan down, likely due to lower fleet sales, and the 300 up.

Fiat sales rose 2 percent, only due to the addition of the 500L, which had sales of 962 cars.

HONDA: American Honda reported sales of 141,439 in a rip-roaring July that brought numerous sales records and an overall 21-percent gain, including an 18-percent increase for Honda's upscale Acura division.

The Civic compact car and Accord midsizer proved yet again to be two vital components of Honda's sales engine, as both models topped 30,000 sales for the month, meaning the two car lines delivered 47 percent of Honda's total U.S. sales. The Accord's 31,507 sales (+10 percent) would have been ticker-tape news in any month but were surpassed by the Civic, which beat a 13-year-old record in moving 32,416 units for a 30-percent rise compared with last July.

In fact, every one of Honda's car lines was up in July, including the aged Fit subcompact (up 9 percent on 5,047 sales) and even the brand's underperforming hybrid models, the CR-Z coupe (+16 percent on 384 sales) and the Insight 5-door, which sold 420 units, one more than in the same month last year.

Honda's utility-vehicle sales were led, per usual, by the CR-V compact crossover and its 27,226 sales, which marked a plump 32-percent improvement, while the Pilot midsize crossover was up by the same percentage on 12,932 sales. The Odyssey minivan increased 11 percent on 13,261 deliveries.

At Acura, the compact RDX and midsize MDX crossovers continued to prop up the brand's lagging car lines. The MDX, just beginning sales of a widely redesigned 2014 model, was Acura's best-selling model in July, its 5,551 sales marking a 29-percent gain. The RDX was Acura's No. 2 for the month with 3,936 sales for a hefty 48-percent rise. Acura's car sales were paced by the 1,843 sales of the TL midsize sedan, although the number marked a 22-percent decline. The redesigned RLX flagship soared by 1,443 percent on 617 sales, but save a 5-percent increase for the ILX compact car, the rest of Acura's car models lost ground compared with last July.

NISSAN: Nissan North America, which includes the Nissan and Infiniti brands, had total July sales of 107,186 vehicles, up 11 percent from a year ago. Nissan Division set a new July record with 101,279 sales, up 17 percent. Infiniti sales fell by nearly a third to 7,762.

Nissan Division's performance was led by strong sales July record setters: Altima (up 11 percent to 29,534 cars accounting for 29 percent of all Nissan sales); Pathfinder (up 235 percent to 8.428 SUVs); and Versa, which just added the Note hatchback version (Versa up 21 percent to 9,007 cars). To be replaced next year, the Rogue also was up — 29 percent to 16,992 crossovers. The aging Maxima, quirky Cube and sporty 370Z had lower sales than a year ago. GTR sales were roughly flat.

Indeed, sales of the Versa as well as Sentra, up 21 percent, and the electric Leaf, up 372 percent to 1,864 cars, suggested some Nissan buyers are looking for fuel efficiency. And clearly Nissan's newest models, with the Rogue being an exception, performed best.

In contrast, Nissan is missing out on the U.S. industry's truck boom as sales of the full-size Titan pickup were down again, down 42 percent to a mere 1,168 trucks, and Frontier sales were flat. Sales for the rest of Nissan's SUV and crossover models were also down.

Infiniti sales looked grim — down 30 percent to 7,762 vehicles. The situation, Nissan executives contend, will reverse as the luxury brand launches new models soon, including the Q50 sports sedan. Every Infiniti model posted hefty double-digit declines except for the newest model, the JX, which launched last year. Its sales rose 37 percent to 2,747 units.