An Early Look at March Sales

It is still too early in the month to draw firm conclusions, but the data so far is notable for its lack of drama. Unless something changes between now and month's end, March sales will end up largely in line with the last few months — at least in terms of total sales. (The market share changes between the manufacturers give us at least some points of interest.)

The sales pacing so far suggests that retail sales will end up at around 1.16m for a retail SAAR of 12.6m. (This compares with retail sales of  941k and a SAAR of 12.4m from last month). If we assume a fleet mix of around 21.0% — March usually has about the same fleet mix as Feb, which was around 20.9% — then March will end with total vehicle sales of around 1.47m and the SAAR will total 15.5m. (This compares with total sales of 1.19m and a SAAR of 15.3m from last month).

Looking at the individual manufacturers, Nissan is up substantially, while GM is down. Everyone else is largely stable. Here are the details: