New Vehicle Sales Expected to Stay Strong in the Second Quarter, According to Edmunds
Analysts say robust April sales helped offset a weaker end to the quarter as inventory and chip shortages continue to worsen, but note that consumer demand remains high heading into the Fourth of July weekend

SANTA MONICA, CA — June 29, 2021 — The car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast that 4,468,791 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2021, which reflects a 51.6% increase from the second quarter of 2020 and a 14.8% increase compared to the first quarter of this year.

"New vehicle sales in the second quarter started off with a bang in April thanks to a combination of a speedier-than-anticipated vaccine rollout and many Americans itching to jump into a new vehicle and on the road toward some semblance of normal life," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "Unfortunately the chipset and inventory shortages really came to a head and outstripped supply in June. This isn't a problem that's going away anytime soon, but the silver lining for automakers and dealers in the meantime is that consumer demand continues to run high and shoppers are clearly willing to pay inflated prices for the vehicles that they want."

Edmunds experts note that current market conditions mean that consumers should be prepared to consider other options if they're looking to make a new vehicle purchase over the Independence Day weekend:

  • Don't get too set on one color or car. Inventory is limited these days. Have backup picks in colors and even a range of different models to give yourself the most flexibility.
  • Consider another brand. If you're having trouble locating a certain model, consider its equivalent at another brand. It may not be one you're familiar with, so make sure to research it well and you could potentially have more to choose from.
  • Try a sedan in place of an SUV or truck. Trucks and SUVs are by far the most popular vehicles today, which means that they will be more expensive and harder to find. Modern sedans offer more space than ever and, in theory, should be easier to find on a dealer lot.
  • Shopping new? Consider used. Shopping used? Consider new! In today's market, it's best not to leave any stone unturned. There may be situations in which a new car might be a better value than a used car, or vice versa. Make sure to explore all your new car or used car options.

"The Fourth of July is going to look a little different this year compared to years past. Instead of being able to stroll into a blowout bargain barbecue event at a dealership, consumers should shop around for deals online beforehand and be ready to pull the trigger as soon as they find what they want," said Ivan Drury, Edmunds' senior manager of insights. "Shoppers who are flexible and have a trade-in are in the best position to secure the best deal this weekend. And given current lower interest rates, consumers might find the best incentives through lease deals rather than cash discounts."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

SALES
VOLUME
2021 Q2
Forecast
Q2 2020
Sales
Q1 2021
Sales
Change from
Q2 2020
Change from
Q1 2021
GM 692,169 492,745 642,571 40.5% 7.7%
Toyota 686,539 398,029 603,066 72.5% 13.8%
Stellantis 519,070 367,086 476,909 41.4% 8.8%
Hyundai/Kia 508,409 270,699 335,137 87.8% 51.7%
Honda 488,297 293,502 347,091 66.4% 40.7%
Ford 479,538 433,869 521,334 10.5% -8.0%
Nissan 298,474 177,328 285,553 68.3% 4.5%
VW/Audi 200,570 101,605 144,256 97.4% 39.0%
Industry 4,468,791 2,948,382 3,894,156 51.6% 14.8%

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market
Share
2021 Q2
Forecast
Q2 2020
Sales
Q1 2021
Sales
Change from
Q2 2020
Change from
Q1 2021
GM 15.5% 16.7% 16.5% -7.3% -6.1%
Toyota 15.4% 13.5% 15.5% 13.8% -0.8%
Stellantis 11.6% 12.5% 12.2% -6.7% -5.2%
Hyundai/Kia 11.4% 9.2% 8.6% 23.9% 32.2%
Honda 10.9% 10.0% 8.9% 9.8% 22.6%
Ford 10.7% 14.7% 13.4% -27.1% -19.8%
Nissan 6.7% 6.0% 7.3% 11.1% -8.9%
VW/Audi 4.5% 3.4% 3.7% 30.2% 21.2%

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

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