New Vehicle Sales Expected to Lift in January, Edmunds Forecasts
Analysts predict a SAAR of 17.2 million in January, but caution this strong start isn't an accurate barometer for the rest of the year

SANTA MONICA, CA — January 24, 2019 — Edmunds forecasts that 1,169,804 new carsand trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.2 million. This reflects a 28.1 percent decrease in sales from December 2018, but a 1.3 percent increase from January 2018.

"January's sales strength shows car shoppers are still feeling optimistic, even in the midst of the government shutdown and talk of a slowing economy," said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' manager of industry analysis. "But despite this positive start, January is such a slow sales month that it doesn't carry much weight when it comes to predicting the health of the auto market for the full year."

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.9 million vehicles in January 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.7 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.1 million used vehicles will be sold in January 2019, for a SAAR of 39.2 million (compared to 2.7 million — or a SAAR of 39.7 million — in December).

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
January
2019 Forecast
January
2018
December
2018
Change from
January 2018
Change from
December 2018
GM* 193,348 198,548 293,680 -2.6% -34.2%
Ford 178,904 160,411 219,632 11.5% -18.5%
Toyota 162,960 167,052 220,908 -2.4% -26.2%
Fiat Chrysler 136,690 132,803 196,520 2.9% -30.4%
Honda 111,135 104,542 155,115 6.3% -28.4%
Nissan 104,737 123,538 148,720 -15.2% -29.6%
Hyundai/Kia 82,203 76,870 113,149 6.9% -27.4%
VW/Audi 36,132 39,255 54,812 -8.0% -34.1%
Tesla 17,167 - - - -
Industry 1,169,804 1,155,313 1,627,597 1.3% -28.1%
*GM sales totals for December 2018 are estimated

**NOTE: January 2019 had 25 selling days, January 2018 had 25 and December 2018 had 26.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
January
2019 Forecast
January
2018
December
2018
Change from
January 2018
Change from
December 2018
GM 16.5% 17.2% 18.0% -0.7% -1.5%
Ford 15.3% 13.9% 13.5% 1.4% 1.8%
Toyota 13.9% 14.5% 13.6% -0.5% 0.4%
Fiat Chrysler 11.7% 11.5% 12.1% 0.2% -0.4%
Honda 9.5% 9.0% 9.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Nissan 9.0% 10.7% 9.1% -1.7% -0.2%
Hyundai/Kia 7.0% 6.7% 7.0% 0.4% 0.1%
VW/Audi 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% -0.3% -0.3%
Tesla 1.5% - - - -

 

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry/.

About Edmunds
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