New Vehicle Sales Expected to Drop in the First Quarter, According to Edmunds
Analysts forecast a SAAR of 13M in March as inventory shortages, supply chain disruptions continue to squeeze the industry

SANTA MONICA, CA — March 30, 2022 — The car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast that 3,296,280 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2022, which reflects a 15.2% decrease from the first quarter of 2021 but a 0.4% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Although Q1 new-vehicle sales volumes are expected to see a year-over-year decline, Edmunds analysts note that vehicles are selling quickly: Edmunds data reveals that in Q1 2022, 41% of all new vehicles sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot, compared to 20% in Q1 2021.

"Skyrocketing gas prices were top of mind for consumers in March, but the lack of inventory is what ultimately depressed new vehicle sales in the first quarter," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "Automakers are still grappling with ongoing disruptions to supply chains and production created by the chip shortage and COVID-19; on top of that, they're likely facing new challenges as a result of the invasion of Ukraine. This combination of headwinds could mean that these inventory issues will persist well into the rest of the year."

According to Edmunds days-to-turn (DTT) data1, all vehicles regardless of fuel type are selling at an accelerated pace compared to a year ago. In March 2022, the average DTT for:

  • Electric vehicles2 dropped to 21 days, compared to 63 days in March 2021. 39% of all EVs sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot in March 2022 compared to 24% a year ago.
  • Hybrid vehicles dropped to 15 days, compared to 48 days in March 2021. 54% of all hybrid vehicles sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot in March 2022 compared to 27% a year ago.
  • Gas-powered vehicles dropped to 20 days, compared to 62 days in March 2021. 43% of all gas-powered vehicles sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot in March 2022 compared to 20% a year ago.
  • Diesel vehicles dropped to 23 days, compared to 36 days in March 2021. 39% of all diesel vehicles sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot in March 2022 compared to 26% a year ago.

For Edmunds data showing the increase in consumers' consideration of green cars in response to elevated gas prices nationwide, as well as helpful EV car shopping tips, click here. For additional Edmunds survey data on consumer car shopping behavior amid rising gas prices, click here.

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume 2022 Q1 Forecast Q1 2021 Sales Q4 2021 Sales Change from Q1 2021 Change from Q4 2021
GM 513,849 642,571 441,068 -20.0% 16.5%
Toyota 502,194 603,066 474,435 -16.7% 5.9%
Ford 427,805 521,334 508,671 -17.9% -15.9%
Stellantis 420,705 471,335 419,821 -10.7% 0.2%
Hyundai/Kia 329,713 335,337 313,905 -1.7% 5.0%
Honda 263,344 347,091 287,208 -24.1% -8.3%
Nissan 202,534 285,553 194,983 -29.1% 3.9%
VW/Audi 103,016 142,927 119,672 -27.9% -13.9%
Industry 3,296,280 3,887,444 3,282,536 -15.2% 0.4%

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share 2022 Q1 Forecast Q1 2021 Market Share Q4 2021 Market Share Change from Q1 2021 Change from Q4 2021
GM 15.6% 16.5% 13.4% -5.7% 16.0%
Toyota 15.2% 15.5% 14.5% -1.8% 5.4%
Ford 13.0% 13.4% 15.5% -3.2% -16.2%
Stellantis 12.8% 12.1% 12.8% 5.3% -0.2%
Hyundai/Kia 10.0% 8.6% 9.6% 16.0% 4.6%
Honda 8.0% 8.9% 8.7% -10.5% -8.7%
Nissan 6.1% 7.3% 5.9% -16.4% 3.4%
VW/Audi 3.1% 3.7% 3.6% -15.0% -14.3%

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

1 How many days a vehicle sits on a dealership lot before being sold
2 Edmunds' data does not include brands that sell directly to consumers

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