New Vehicle Sales Expected to Dip Slightly in Q3, According to Edmunds
Analysts say challenging market conditions, growing economic uncertainty are offsetting gradual improvements within semiconductor supply chain

SANTA MONICA, CA — September 29, 2022 — The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 3,393,988 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2022, which will be a 0.9% decrease from the third quarter of 2021 and a 2.7% decrease compared to the second quarter of 2022.

"Sales are expected to be down in the third quarter, but they won't be in free fall," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "Although inventory levels should slowly pick up as improvements are made to the microchip supply chain, additional headwinds such as rising interest rates, inflation and looming economic uncertainty threaten to offset much of this progress. Consumer confidence could deflate moving forward, but automakers and dealers can at least always count on necessity-based vehicle purchases keeping the industry afloat."

Edmunds analysts advise consumers who need to make a vehicle purchase in the near future to take a much more pragmatic approach than they might have in years past.

"Car shoppers must factor in rising inflation and interest rates as part of their budget," said Ivan Drury, Edmunds' director of insights. "Most Americans are probably used to upsizing or upscaling whenever making a new car purchase, but it's more realistic to expect a reduction in your disposable income for the foreseeable future. Try to stay within the same vehicle parameters and cost because, once you sign the paperwork, your monthly car payment is set."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

SALES VOLUME 2022 Q3 Forecast 2021 Q3 Sales 2022 Q2 Sales Change from 2021 Q3 Change from 2022 Q2
GM 559,411 448,826 582,646 24.6% -4.0%
Toyota 516,970 566,005 531,107 -8.7% -2.7%
Ford 472,030 400,853 483,744 17.8% -2.4%
Stellantis 393,362 420,932 413,015 -6.5% -4.8%
Hyundai/Kia 391,261 370,538 381,500 5.6% 2.6%
Honda 222,696 345,914 239,789 -35.6% -7.1%
Nissan 152,545 198,552 183,171 -23.2% -16.7%
VW/Audi 147,219 132,706 117,929 10.9% 24.8%
Industry 3,393,988 3,425,740 3,487,619 -0.9% -2.7%

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share 2022 Q3 Forecast 2021 Q3 Sales 2022 Q2 Sales Change from 2021 Q3 Change from 2022 Q2
GM 16.5% 13.1% 16.7% 25.8% -1.3%
Toyota 15.2% 16.5% 15.2% -7.8% 0.0%
Ford 13.9% 11.7% 13.9% 18.9% 0.3%
Stellantis 11.6% 12.3% 11.8% -5.7% -2.1%
Hyundai/Kia 11.5% 10.8% 10.9% 6.6% 5.4%
Honda 6.6% 10.1% 6.9% -35.0% -4.6%
Nissan 4.5% 5.8% 5.3% -22.5% -14.4%
VW/Audi 4.3% 3.9% 3.4% 12.0% 28.3%

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

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