New Vehicle Sales Expected to Cool Slightly in October, Edmunds Forecasts
Edmunds analysts say October sales remain healthy, but signal a continued market correction through the end of the year

SANTA MONICA, CA — October 24, 2018 — Edmunds forecasts that 1,322,340 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.1 million. This reflects a 6.7 percent decrease in sales from September 2018 and a 2.1 percent decrease from October 2017.

"The fourth quarter is off to a slow, but not alarming, start for the auto market," said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds manager of industry analysis. "Last October, auto sales were somewhat spurred by replacement demand following Hurricane Harvey, which makes for a more complex year-over-year comparison. Rising interest rates and higher vehicle prices are also thinning the crowds of shoppers at dealerships, and that's a trend we see stretching into the new year."

Despite the headwinds the industry is facing, Edmunds experts note that auto sales remain at historically healthy levels.

"The auto market has been so strong over the last several years it's easy to forget that a SAAR over 17 million is nothing to sneeze at," Acevedo said. "But since sales are slowing, automakers and dealers will need to rally through November and December to move excess inventory off their lots. Car shoppers will likely see a slew of decent deals come this holiday sales season."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
October
2018 Forecast
October
2017
September
2018
Change from
October 2017
Change from
September 2018
GM 230,502 252,813 235,937 -8.8% -2.3%
Toyota 192,729 188,434 203,098 2.3% -5.1%
Ford 189,793 199,698 196,496 -5.0% -3.4%
Fiat Chrysler 167,507 153,373 199,819 9.2% -16.2%
Honda 126,581 127,353 132,668 -0.6% -4.6%
Nissan 106,797 123,012 122,819 -13.2% -13.0%
Hyundai/Kia 99,095 97,407 108,862 1.7% -9.0%
VW/Audi 47,717 47,157 49,874 1.2% -4.3%
Industry 1,322,340 1,351,127 1,417,190 -2.1% -6.7%
*GM sales totals for September 2018 are estimated

**NOTE: October 2018 had 26 selling days, October 2017 had 25 and September 2018 had 25.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.1 million vehicles in October 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.2 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.3 million used vehicles will be sold in October 2018, for a SAAR of 39.6 million (compared to 3.3 million & or a SAAR of 39.6 million & in September).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
October
2018 Forecast
October
2017
September
2018
Change from
October 2017
Change from
September 2018
GM 17.4% 18.7% 16.6% -1.3% 0.8%
Toyota 14.6% 13.9% 14.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Ford 14.4% 14.8% 13.9% -0.4% 0.5%
Fiat Chrysler 12.7% 11.4% 14.1% 1.3% -1.4%
Honda 9.6% 9.4% 9.4% 0.1% 0.2%
Nissan 8.1% 9.1% 8.7% -1.0% -0.6%
Hyundai/Kia 7.5% 7.2% 7.7% 0.3% -0.2%
VW/Audi 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 0.1% 0.1%

 

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

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