November Auto Sales Expected to Slip for First Time Since 2009, Edmunds Forecasts

November Auto Sales Expected to Slip for First Time Since 2009, Edmunds Forecasts

Although Black Friday promotions lift sales month over month, Edmunds analysts say November signals sales slowdown through end of 2018


SANTA MONICA, CA — November 21, 2018 — Edmunds forecasts that 1,376,253 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.3 million. This reflects a 1.3 percent increase in sales from October 2018, but a 1.3 percent decrease from November 2017. Edmunds analysts note that this month marks the first drop since 2009 in November sales, which have grown year over year in part due to increasing demand following the recession, and in part due to November becoming a bigger sales month thanks to automakers and dealers capitalizing on Black Friday.

"Retailers have been pushing Black Friday car deals through the entire month of November, so unless they decide to pull out all the stops in the 11th hour, this is likely going to be the first time we see November sales take a dip in nearly a decade," said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' manager of industry analysis. "Although sales remain at a healthy level, factors such as increasing market saturation, rising transaction prices and elevated interest rates continue to create headwinds for the industry overall. November's sales slowdown signifies a new normal that we can expect through at least the end of 2018, and likely into 2019."

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.3 million vehicles in November 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.2 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.0 million used vehicles will be sold in November 2018, for a SAAR of 39.8 million (compared to 3.3 million — or a SAAR of 39.6 million — in October).

For the first time, estimates for Tesla are included in the Edmunds retail SAAR calculations, volume forecasts and market share estimates for November. Edmunds analysts note that Tesla's increasing impact on the market makes it necessary to include these figures as part of the overall industry sales picture, and as a result will continue to include them monthly moving forward.

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
November
2018 Forecast
November
2017
October
2018
Change from
November 2017
Change from
October 2018
GM* 239,197 245,387 242,000 -2.5% -1.2%
Toyota 193,516 191,617 191,102 1.0% 1.3%
Ford 190,557 210,205 191,682 -9.3% -0.6%
Fiat Chrysler 176,695 154,919 177,391 14.1% -0.4%
Honda 123,689 133,156 122,182 -7.1% 1.2%
Nissan 113,863 135,985 109,962 -16.3% 3.5%
Hyundai/Kia 102,081 101,513 98,127 0.6% 4.0%
VW/Audi 47,205 48,402 45,056 -2.5% 4.8%
Tesla 18,644 -  - - -
Industry 1,376,253 1,394,127 1,358,306 -1.3% 1.3%
*GM sales totals for October 2018 are estimated

**NOTE: November 2018 had 25 selling days, November 2017 had 25 and October 2018 had 26.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
November
2018 Forecast
November
2017
October
2018
Change from
November 2017
Change from
October 2018
GM 17.4% 17.6% 17.8% -0.2% -0.4%
Toyota 14.1% 13.7% 14.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Ford 13.8% 15.1% 14.1% -1.2% -0.3%
Fiat Chrysler 12.8% 11.1% 13.1% 1.7% -0.2%
Honda 9.0% 9.6% 9.0% -0.6% 0.0%
Nissan 8.3% 9.8% 8.1% -1.5% 0.2%
Hyundai/Kia 7.4% 7.3% 7.2% 0.1% 0.2%
VW/Audi 3.4% 3.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.1%
Tesla 1.4%  - - -  -

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

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