Edmunds.com Forecasts March Auto Sales: Ford May Sell More Cars than GM
Edmunds.com Forecasts February Auto Sales: SAAR Continues on Steady Path, Even as Toyota Market Share Falters
SANTA MONICA, Calif. — March 24, 2011 — This month's new car sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be approximately 1,242,000 units, a 16.5 percent increase from March 2010 and a 25.1 percent increase from February 2011, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information. Retail sales are expected to be approximately 987,000 units, up from approximately 786,000 last month.
Edmunds.com analysts predict that March's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 13.07 million, down from 13.38 in February 2011. SAAR for retail sales are expected to decline from last month to about 10.4 million in March.
Average automaker incentives in the U.S. are estimated to be $2,321 per vehicle sold in March 2011, down $245, or 9.5 percent, from February 2011, and down $494, or 17.5 percent, from March 2010.
"GM seems to have pulled back on incentives in March and could suffer a sales hangover through the next few months, given that the company's earlier offers have been quite generous and may have pulled ahead future sales," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Unless GM generates significant month-end activity or Ford runs into constraints with inventory, Ford may overtake GM in monthly sales for only the second time since 1998."
March 2011 had 27 selling days, one more than March 2010. The chart below provides month-over-month comparisons:
| Change from March 2010 (Adjusted for one more selling days) | Change from March 2010 (Unadjusted for one more selling days) | Change from February 2011 (Unadjusted for three more selling days) | |
|---|---|---|---|
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Jeep) |
17.1% |
21.6% |
18.5% |
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury) |
10.3% |
14.5% |
34.4% |
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saturn) |
6.7% |
10.8% |
0.7% |
Honda (Acura, Honda) |
20.1% |
24.7% |
37.7% |
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) |
18.5% |
23.1% |
27.2% |
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) |
-6.7% |
-3.1% |
27.7% |
Industry Total |
12.2% |
16.5% |
25.1% |
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated at 42.8 percent in March 2011, down from 43.6 percent in March 2010 and down from 46.2 percent in February 2011.
Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 210,400 units in March 2011, up 14.5 percent compared to March 2010 and up 34.4 percent from February 2011. This would result in a new car market share of 16.9 percent of new car sales in March 2011 for Ford, down from 17.2 percent in March 2010 but up from 15.8 percent in February 2011.
Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 208,400 units in March 2011, up 10.8 percent compared to March 2010 and up 0.7 percent from February 2011. GM's market share is expected to be 16.8 percent of new vehicle sales in March 2011, down from 17.6 percent in March 2010 and down from 20.8 percent in February 2011.
Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 112,700 units in March 2011, up 21.6 percent compared to March 2010 and up 18.5 percent from February 2011. This would result in a new car market share of 9.1 percent for Chrysler in March 2011, up from 8.7 percent in March 2010 but down from 9.6 percent in February 2011.
Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 135,000 units in March 2011, up 24.7 percent from March 2010 and up 37.7 percent from February 2011. Honda's market share is expected to be 10.9 percent in March 2011, up from 10.2 percent in March 2010 and up from 9.9 percent in February 2011.
Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 117,500 units in March 2011, up 23.1 percent from March 2010 and up 27.2 percent from February 2011. Nissan's market share is expected to be 9.5 percent in March 2011, up from 9.0 percent in March 2010 and up from 9.3 percent in February 2011.
Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 181,100 units in March 2011, down 3.1 percent from March 2010 but up 27.7 percent from February 2011. Toyota's market share is expected to be 14.6 percent in March 2011, down from 17.5 percent in March 2010 but up from 14.3 percent in February 2011.
Read more about the March sales forecast on Edmunds AutoObserver.com at http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/03/ford-may-top-gm-in-march-sales.html
About Edmunds (http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/index.html)
Edmunds publishes Web sites that empower, engage and educate automotive consumers, enthusiasts and insiders. Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site and hosts the most established automotive community online. Its mobile site, accessible from any smartphone at www.edmunds.com, makes car pricing and other research tools available for car shoppers at dealerships and otherwise on the go. InsideLine.com is the most-read automotive enthusiast Web site. Its mobile site, accessible from any smartphone at www.insideline.com, features the wireless Web's highest quality car photos and videos. AutoObserver.com provides insightful automotive industry commentary and analysis. Edmunds is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit. Follow Edmunds.com on Twitter@edmunds and fan Edmunds.com on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/edmunds.
