Edmunds.com Forecasts a Pleasant October Surprise for Honda and Nissan


Edmunds.com Forecasts a Pleasant October Surprise for Honda and Nissan

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — October 25, 2012 — Edmunds.com, the premier resource for automotive information, forecasts that 1,132,878 new cars will be sold in October for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 14.8 million light vehicles. October's SAAR is poised to be the second-highest monthly SAAR of 2012 (behind last month's rate of 14.9 million) and the best October since the rate of 16.1 million vehicles recorded in 2007.

But the biggest October surprises are reserved for Honda and Nissan, which Edmunds.com projects will enjoy their biggest October sales ever in the U.S. Honda's estimated sales this month are poised to top its previous October high of 114,799 sales in 2007. Meanwhile, Nissan's projected sales this month could surpass its October record of 86,626 sales in 2004. The results indicate strong performances by the automakers' popular redesigned models, the 2013 Honda Accord and the 2013 Nissan Altima.

"These record-breaking numbers are a testament to the American car buyer's appetite for all-new redesigned and refreshed models," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs. "The Accord and Altima have been hits for Honda and Nissan, respectively, for a very long time, and when you can make a good thing even better, the market will absolutely respond."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume October 2012 Forecast October 2011 September 2012 Change from October 2011* Change from September 2012*
GM 195,592 186,895 210,245 4.7% -7.0%
Ford 173,876 167,971 174,454 3.5% -0.3%
Toyota 167,064 134,046 171,910 24.6% -2.8%
Chrysler 129,266 114,357 142,041 13.0% -9.0%
Honda 115,697 98,333 117,211 17.7% -1.3%
Nissan 87,219 81,877 91,907 6.5% -5.1%
Industry 1,132,878 1,019,709 1,188,107 11.1% -4.6%

Edmunds.com estimates that October's projected sales will be a 4.6 percent decrease from September 2012, but an 11.1 percent increase (unadjusted for number of selling days) from October 2011. Retail SAAR will come in at 12.1 million vehicles in October, with fleet transactions accounting for 18.3 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.1 million used cars will be sold in October, for a SAAR of 36.9 million (compared to 3.1 million – or a SAAR of 36.8 million – used car sales in September).

General Motors and Chrysler are expected to be the only two major automakers to see their market shares slip this month, according to Edmunds.com's forecast. GM's market share is projected to fall 0.4 percentage points from September to 17.3 percent, but that is attributed to a decline in fleet sales. Retail sales are expected to be slightly up for GM, but the same is not true for Chrysler. Chrysler's share is expected to slip 0.5 points to 11.4 percent of all cars sold in the U.S.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share October 2012 Forecast October 2011 September 2012 Change from Oct 2011 (Percentage pts.) Change from Sept 2012 (Percentage pts.)
GM 17.3% 18.3% 17.7% -1.1% -0.4%
Ford 15.3% 16.5% 14.7% -1.1% 0.7%
Toyota 14.7% 13.1% 14.5% 1.6% 0.3%
Chrysler 11.4% 11.2% 12.0% 0.2% -0.5%
Honda 10.2% 9.6% 9.9% 0.6% 0.3%
Nissan 7.7% 8.0% 7.7% -0.3% 0.0%

"Every automaker can have a bad month, but this isn't exactly the best timing for GM and Chrysler," says Krebs. "Their October sales numbers are under more of a microscope than usual with Election Day around the corner and the auto bailout top of mind for the presidential candidates, many voters and a host of pundits."

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds.com, Inc.
At Edmunds.com, we're committed to helping people find the car that meets their every need. Almost 18 million visitors use our research, shopping and buying tools every month to make an easy and informed decision on their next new or used car. Whether you're at the dealership or on the go, we're always by your side with our five-star Edmunds.com iPhone and iPad apps and our Edmunds.com Android App. Our comprehensive car reviews, shopping tips, photos, videos and feature stories offer a friendly and authentic approach to the automotive world. We're based in Santa Monica, Calif., but you can connect with us from anywhere by following @Edmunds on Twitter or by becoming a fan of Edmunds.com on Facebook.

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