Edmunds.com Auto Sales Forecast: Sales Strong Thanks to Deferred Demand and Early Holiday Deals


Edmunds.com Auto Sales Forecast: Sales Strong Thanks to Deferred Demand and Early Holiday Deals

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — November 29, 2011 — An estimated 991,296 new cars will be sold in November for a projected Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.6 million, forecasts Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information.

"There were positive forces in the auto market in November, as more inventory was available and automakers began year-end holiday sales events. Deal-oriented messages work more effectively than ever before," stated Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "While sales are strong now, we are still witnessing the deferred demand from the summer months, so we cannot expect this sales level to be considered the 'new normal.'"

Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Ray Zhou, PhD, added, "In the last two years, Thanksgiving weekend brought higher auto sales than we typically see, probably due to the current economic environment and buyers' bargain-hunting mentality."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume Nov-11 Forecast 10-Nov 11-Oct Change from Nov 2010 Change from Nov 2010 (adjusted)* Change from Oct 2011
GM 185,309 168,682 186,895 9.9% 5.5% -0.8%
Ford 164,805 146,956 167,973 12.1% 7.7% -1.9%
Toyota 133,782 129,317 134,046 3.5% -0.7% -0.2%
Chrysler 106,097 74,152 114,355 43.1% 37.4% -7.2%
Honda 91,835 89,617 98,333 2.5% -1.6% -6.6%
Nissan 77,214 71,366 81,877 8.2% 3.9% -5.7%
Industry 991,296 872,787 1,019,709 13.6% 9.0% -2.8%

*NOTE: November 2011 had 25 sales days; November 2010 had 24

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share Nov-11 Forecast 10-Nov 11-Oct Change from Nov 2010 Change from Oct 2011
GM 18.7% 19.3% 18.3% -0.6% 0.4%
Ford 16.6% 16.8% 16.5% -0.2% 0.2%
Toyota 13.5% 14.8% 13.1% -1.3% 0.4%
Chrysler 10.7% 8.5% 11.2% 2.2% -0.5%
Honda 9.3% 10.3% 9.6% -1.0% -0.4%
Nissan 7.8% 8.2% 8.0% -0.4% -0.2%

Additional data on sales, market share and incentive spending can also be found in Edmunds.com's Data Center at http://www.autoobserver.com/car-data-center/.

About Edmunds.com, Inc. (http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/index.html)

Edmunds.com Inc. publishes Web sites that empower, engage and educate automotive consumers, enthusiasts and insiders. Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site and hosts the most established automotive community online. Its mobile site, accessible from any smartphone at www.edmunds.com, makes car pricing and other research tools available for car shoppers at dealerships and otherwise on the go. InsideLine.com is the most-read automotive enthusiast Web site. Its mobile site, accessible from any smartphone at www.insideline.com, features the wireless Web's highest quality car photos and videos. AutoObserver.com provides insightful automotive industry commentary and analysis. Edmunds.com Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit. Follow Edmunds.com on Twitter@edmunds and fan Edmunds.com on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/edmunds.

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