Black Friday to Set Pace for Potentially Record-Breaking Car Sales in November, Forecasts Edmunds.com
SANTA MONICA, Calif. — November 23, 2015 — Car shopping destination Edmunds.com today issued its November 2015 new car sales forecast, which projects that 1,331,415 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 18.3 million. Both the volume and SAAR are threatening to be the biggest on record for the month of November, eclipsing the 1,324,542 new cars sold in 2001 for a SAAR of 17.7 million. The projected sales will be an 8.3 percent decrease from October 2015, but a 2.5 percent increase from November 2014.
"Not even a decade ago, November was a notoriously slow sales month, and it typically ranked as the third worst month for sales in the calendar year," says Edmunds.com Director of Industry Analysis Jessica Caldwell. "But in recent years, car dealers have joined other retailers to embrace Black Friday as a big sales driver. Since 2010, November has delivered one of the three best SAARs in each year, and last year, Thanksgiving weekend accounted for twice as many sales as any other weekend in November. We expect to see both trends continue this year."
| Sales Volume | November 2015 Forecast |
November 2014 |
October 2015 |
Change from November 2014 |
Change from October 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 231,035 | 225,816 | 262,993 | 2.3% | -12.2% |
| Toyota | 192,343 | 183,346 | 204,045 | 4.9% | -5.7% |
| Ford | 191,126 | 186,336 | 213,105 | 2.6% | -10.3% |
| Chrysler Group | 176,647 | 170,839 | 195,545 | 3.4% | -9.7% |
| Honda | 118,692 | 121,814 | 131,651 | -2.6% | -9.8% |
| Nissan | 105,342 | 103,188 | 116,047 | 2.1% | -9.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 102,256 | 98,608 | 110,049 | 3.7% | -7.1% |
| VW/Audi | 41,284 | 48,246 | 48,087 | -14.4% | -14.1% |
| Industry | 1,331,415 | 1,298,436 | 1,451,722 | 2.5% | -8.3% |
Despite this month's soaring sales forecast, Edmunds projects that Volkswagen will continue to struggle as a result of its ongoing "Dieselgate" crisis. Edmunds forecasts that VW/Audi sales in November will be down 14.4 percent year over year, with VW brand sales alone falling 26.9 percent over the same period.
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 15.4 million vehicles in November, with fleet transactions accounting for 16.1 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.77 million used cars will be sold in November, for a SAAR of 38.5 million (compared to 3.17 million — or a SAAR of 37.9 million — used car sales in October).
| Market Share | November 2015 Forecast |
November 2014 |
October 2015 |
Change from November 2014 |
Change from October 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 17.4% | 17.4% | 18.1% | 0.0% | -0.8% |
| Toyota | 14.4% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Ford | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.7% | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| Chrysler Group | 13.3% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| Honda | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.1% | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| Nissan | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| VW/Audi | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.6% | -0.2% |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
About Edmunds.com
Car shopping destination Edmunds.com serves nearly 20 million visitors each month. With Edmunds.com Price Promise®, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Shoppers can browse not only dealer inventory, but also vehicle reviews, shopping tips, photos, videos and feature stories on both Edmunds' wired site and on its acclaimed mobile apps. Regarded as one of the best places to work in Southern California, Edmunds.com was also named one of "The World's Top 10 Most Innovative Companies of 2015 in Automotive" by Fast Company. Edmunds welcomes all car-shopping questions at our Help Center and on Twitter and Facebook. The company is based in Santa Monica, Calif. and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Mich., but you can find Edmunds from anywhere on YouTube, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Instagram, Google+ and Flipboard.
