New Vehicle Sales Expected to Dip Year-Over-Year, but Remain Strong in September, Edmunds Forecasts

New Vehicle Sales Expected to Dip Year-Over-Year, but Remain Strong in September, Edmunds Forecasts

Despite a SAAR of 17 million in September, replacement demand following Hurricane Harvey bolstered vehicle sales in 2017, making for a year-over-year decline


SANTA MONICA, CA — September 26, 2018 — Edmunds forecasts that 1,392,434 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in September for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.0 million. This reflects a 5.4 percent decrease in sales from August 2018 and an 8.3 percent decrease from September 2017.

"Vehicle replacement demand following Hurricane Harvey bolstered auto sales last September, and Hurricane Florence has had a very limited impact on auto sales this month, which are the primary reasons why we're seeing this year-over-year decline," said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' manager of industry analysis. "With that said, a SAAR of 17 million is certainly not an unhealthy number — September is still shaping up to be a robust month for sales."

Edmunds data reveals that September marks the first time that the SAAR has pushed above 17 million in two months. Experts note that this boost in sales may be attributed to automakers loosening the reins on incentives as they get ready to navigate the model-year selldown.

"Labor Day sales typically help get the month of September off to a solid start," said Acevedo. "Now that we're heading into the fourth quarter and more 2019 model year vehicles are making their way to showrooms, automakers and dealers are likely making more of a concerted effort to address lagging inventories."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
September 2018
Forecast
September
2017
August
2018
Change from
September 2017
Change from
August 2018
GM 236,396 279,397 240,000 -15.4% -1.5%
Toyota 208,658 226,632 223,055 -7.9% -6.5%
Ford 199,432 221,643 217,700 -10.0% -8.4%
Fiat Chrysler 185,995 174,266 193,718 6.7% -4.0%
Honda 137,145 142,722 147,903 -3.9% -7.3%
Nissan 112,358 139,932 112,376 -19.7% 0.0%
Hyundai/Kia 101,181 109,475 111,406 -7.6% -9.2%
VW/Audi 49,710 51,420 53,162 -3.3% -6.5%
Industry 1,392,434 1,519,093 1,472,125 -8.3% -5.4%
*GM sales totals for August 2018 are estimated

**NOTE: September 2018 had 25 selling days, September 2017 had 26 and August 2018 had 27.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.4 million vehicles in September 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 15.2 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.3 million used vehicles will be sold in September 2018, for a SAAR of 39.6 million (compared to 3.4 million — or a SAAR of 39.7 million — in August).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
September 2018
Forecast
September
2017
August
2018
Change from
September 2017
Change from
August 2018
GM 17.0% 18.4% 16.3% -1.4% 0.7%
Toyota 15.0% 14.9% 15.2% 0.1% -0.2%
Ford 14.3% 14.6% 14.8% -0.3% -0.5%
Fiat Chrysler 13.4% 11.5% 13.2% 1.9% 0.2%
Honda 9.8% 9.4% 10.0% 0.5% -0.2%
Nissan 8.1% 9.2% 7.6% -1.1% 0.4%
Hyundai/Kia 7.3% 7.2% 7.6% 0.1% -0.3%
VW/Audi 3.6% 3.4% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

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