SANTA MONICA, CA — January 24, 2018 — Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,121,932 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.7 million. This reflects a 29.8 percent decrease in sales from December 2017 and a 1.4 percent decrease from January 2017.
"In January, automakers are expected to pull the reins in on the more generous incentive programs that we saw at the end of 2017," said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of industry analysis at Edmunds. "However, it's typical to see a slowdown at dealerships in January following the high-selling holiday months. This isn't necessarily a solid indicator of the direction that the year is headed in terms of overall sales."
Sluggish January sales are also expected as a result of severe winter weather in many parts of the country.
"The bomb cyclone that tore through the East Coast at the beginning of the month certainly didn't help an already slower sales month," said Caldwell.
| Sales Volume | January 2018 Forecast | January 2017 | December 2017 | Change from January 2017 | Change from December 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 204,225 | 195,909 | 308,539 | 4.2% | -33.8% |
| Ford | 158,704 | 171,186 | 240,910 | -7.3% | -34.1% |
| Toyota | 154,066 | 143,048 | 222,985 | 7.7% | -30.9% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 129,127 | 152,218 | 171,946 | -15.2% | -24.9% |
| Nissan | 113,630 | 112,319 | 138,226 | 1.2% | -17.8% |
| Honda | 107,218 | 106,380 | 149,317 | 0.8% | -28.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 83,930 | 82,133 | 106,633 | 2.2% | -21.3% |
| VW/Audi | 36,261 | 36,711 | 57,258 | -1.2% | -36.7% |
| Industry | 1,121,932 | 1,138,241 | 1,597,826 | -1.4% | -29.8% |
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.4 million vehicles in January 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.5 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.1 million used vehicles will be sold in January 2018, for a SAAR of 38.9 million (compared to 2.7 million — or a SAAR of 38.7 million — in December).
| Market Share | January 2018 Forecast | January 2017 | December 2017 | Change from January 2017 | Change from December 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 18.2% | 17.2% | 19.3% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| Ford | 14.1% | 15.0% | 15.1% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| Toyota | 13.7% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 1.2% | -0.2% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 11.5% | 13.4% | 10.8% | -1.9% | 0.7% |
| Nissan | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| Honda | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| VW/Audi | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 0.0% | -0.4% |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry/.
About Edmunds
Edmunds is the leading car information and shopping platform, helping millions of visitors each month find their perfect car. With products such as Edmunds Your Price, Your Lease and Used+, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at more than 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Edmunds' in-house team of unbiased car-shopping experts provide industry-leading vehicle reviews and shopping tips, and the company also has a 20-year-old forums community of car shoppers and enthusiasts, where members can get shopping advice and learn what others are buying and leasing cars for. The company is regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work. Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Michigan.
