Gas Prices Continue to Rise, But Are Shoppers Actually Shifting to Electric Vehicles?

• Average U.S. gasoline prices have climbed above $4 per gallon amid the conflict in the Middle East.
• Early Edmunds data shows gas spikes are nudging EV interest upward but not driving major conversions.
• It’s still early, and many consumers aren’t yet in a position to switch, even as higher fuel costs linger in their minds.

¹ Consideration is defined as research activity on Edmunds.com that occurs on a make/model/model year level, i.e., engaging with photos or reading Edmunds expert reviews on a model year page, looking at inventory listings, or submitting a lead to a dealer.

EV consideration has edged higher on Edmunds, but the increase is modest — especially when compared to the surge seen in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when fuel prices triggered a more substantial shift in consumer behavior. Even then, increased interest didn't translate into instant sales. EV market share climbed from 4.4% to 5.2% between March and June of that year before leveling off, influenced by factors other than gas prices.

Lag matters, but understanding the underlying drivers of demand is even more critical.

Over the past year, the EV market's most significant growth moment wasn't tied to fuel costs at all. Instead, it came ahead of the federal tax credit expiration, which temporarily pushed market share higher as buyers rushed to take advantage of the $7,500 incentive before it ended in September last year. When that deadline passed, the market gave much of it back. The result was less of a sustained step forward and more of a classic pull-forward effect, followed by a hangover. Regional incentives, vehicle availability, and charging infrastructure also play important roles in shaping EV demand, alongside the national tax credit and fuel costs.

What we're seeing now in 2026 looks different. EV market share has settled back into a narrower range, and while growth isn't accelerating, it also isn't collapsing. That stability may ultimately be a healthier signal for the industry. It suggests the market is beginning to normalize, with demand driven less by short-term incentives or external shocks and more by consumers who are genuinely ready to make the switch.

For an industry long accustomed to viewing gas prices as a key catalyst to changes in shopping behavior, that shift could have weighty implications. EV adoption may depend less on volatility at the pump and more on fundamentals like affordability, access to charging, and consumer confidence.

Affordability continues to challenge households nationwide, and high vehicle prices mean many consumers aren't in a position to switch to an EV today. The average transaction price of a new electric vehicle in March 2026 was $56,170, compared to $45,092 for the rest of the industry. Still, the psychological impact of high fuel costs can linger, shaping future decisions and keeping electrification top of mind when buyers are ready. 

Edmunds says

Today's rising gas prices may frustrate consumers, but their impact on EV adoption, at least so far, is subtle — nudging behavior gradually rather than triggering an immediate surge. Frustration at the pump alone won't sell electric vehicles — adoption depends on whether consumers are ready, not just resentful.

Photo by Justin Sullivan / Getty Images