Car Shoppers Paying More Attention to EVs as Gas Prices Rise, Edmunds Data Shows

• Gas prices have jumped sharply following escalating tensions involving Iran.
• Early signals in Edmunds site activity suggest an uptick in car shoppers considering electrified vehicles.
• The vehicle affordability crisis is more severe today than during the last major fuel price spike.
• A wave of EVs coming off leases in 2026 could expand the supply of more affordable electrified options in the used market.

Escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran are beginning to affect fuel prices across the United States. According to data from AAA, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline climbed to $3.54 on March 10, up 43 cents from $3.11 just one week earlier. In California, average prices have jumped even more sharply, rising about 62 cents over the past week to $5.29 per gallon.

It’s difficult to predict how long fuel prices may remain elevated, but sharp increases at the pump have historically influenced how drivers think about their next vehicle.

Edmunds on-site shopping data offers an early look at how car shoppers may be responding.

What Edmunds car shopping data shows

Early signals in Edmunds site activity show a slight uptick in shoppers exploring alternatives to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles. In the week starting March 2, shopper consideration¹ of electrified vehicles (hybrids, plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles) accounted for 22.4% of all vehicle research activity on Edmunds, up from 20.7% the previous week. Most of that increase was driven by growing shopper interest in battery electric vehicles, which saw the largest gain among electrified powertrains during this time period.

Because gasoline prices only began rising sharply late in the week, the shift in shopper behavior is likely still in its early stages. The data reflects just one week of activity, whereas previous major fuel price spikes have tended to influence shopping patterns over longer periods. 

Gas price spikes can influence vehicle adoption over time

The last major fuel price spike offers a useful comparison. During the 2022 fuel price surge following Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the end of February, total electrified vehicle consideration on Edmunds climbed sharply, rising from 17.5% of all vehicle research activity in February to 25.1% in March as fuel prices surged nationwide. 

EV market share also increased steadily throughout the year as gasoline prices remained elevated through Q3 2022, suggesting that sustained exposure to higher fuel costs can result in actual sales changes as well as consideration.

*Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Why this fuel price spike may play out differently 

Previous major fuel price spikes occurred in a different automotive market than the one consumers face today. While the 2022 fuel price surge following Russia's invasion of Ukraine helped drive increased consumer interest in fuel-efficient vehicles, financing and pricing conditions have grown more challenging since then — making the vehicle affordability crisis even more pronounced today. 

Edmunds compared financing costs and vehicle prices from February 2026 with those from February 2022. The comparison shows that switching vehicles is considerably more expensive today. The average transaction price for a new vehicle reached $48,766 in February 2026, compared with $45,596 in February 2022, according to Edmunds data. Borrowing costs have risen even more sharply: The average APR for a new vehicle loan climbed from 4.4% in February 2022 to 7.0% in February 2026, pushing the average monthly payment from $656 to $775 over the same period.

Put simply, in today's market, trying to offset higher fuel costs with a new vehicle purchase can quickly turn a $5 gas problem into a nearly $50,000 decision.

Trade-in value can also further complicate the equation. When gas prices spike, demand for less fuel-efficient vehicles often softens, which can put downward pressure on trade-in values for larger vehicles or models with lower fuel economy. That dynamic can further increase the cost of switching vehicles at exactly the moment many drivers begin thinking about fuel savings.

Taken together, these factors mean many drivers may simply absorb higher fuel prices rather than replacing their vehicle in the short term.

Who may be more responsive to rising fuel prices

But there is one group of shoppers who may be more responsive to changes in fuel prices: consumers who are already planning to replace their vehicle, such as drivers approaching the end of a lease or preparing to trade in an aging car. For those shoppers, rising fuel costs could still influence what type of vehicle they choose next.

A potential bright spot: More electrified vehicles are entering the used market 

According to Edmunds data, the mix of vehicles expected to return from leases in 2026 includes a significantly higher share of electrified vehicles than in previous years. While internal combustion vehicles made up 93% of expected lease returns in 2025, that share is projected to fall to 82% in 2026.

At the same time, electrified vehicles will represent a much larger portion of those returning vehicles. The share of battery electric vehicles is projected to rise from 2% of lease returns in 2025 to 8% in 2026, while hybrids and plug-in hybrids will also account for a larger portion of off-lease inventory.

For some lessees returning an electric vehicle this year, buying out the lease may not be the most economical option. Residual values set when those vehicles were originally leased may now exceed the price of comparable used vehicles on the market. As a result, more lessees may choose to return their vehicles at the end of the lease rather than purchase them, potentially adding supply to the used EV market.  

As more of these vehicles enter the used market, shoppers looking to reduce fuel costs may find more affordable electrified options than buying new. Because many of these vehicles are only a few years old, buyers may also benefit from improved range and technology compared with earlier EV models.

Edmunds says

Fuel prices have long influenced how drivers think about their next vehicle because they are one of the most visible costs of car ownership. But whether the latest spike translates into meaningful shifts toward electrified vehicles may depend less on the price of gasoline itself and more on how long consumers expect fuel costs to remain elevated.

If drivers view higher gas prices as temporary, many may simply absorb the added expense rather than take on the significant financial commitment of replacing their vehicle. But if fuel prices remain elevated for an extended period, more shoppers could begin weighing fuel economy and electrification more seriously as they plan their next purchase.

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¹ Consideration is defined as research activity on Edmunds.com that occurs on a make/model/model year level, i.e., engaging with photos or reading Edmunds expert reviews on a model year page, looking at inventory listings, or submitting a lead to a dealer.