Edmunds.com Auto Sales Forecast: Toyota Makes Big Gains but Still Off 20 Percent From Last Year, Industry Retail SAAR Up 13 Percent Over Last Month

Edmunds.com Auto Sales Forecast: Toyota Makes Big Gains but Still Off 20 Percent From Last Year, Industry Retail SAAR Up 13 Percent Over Last Month


Edmunds.com Auto Sales Forecast: Toyota Makes Big Gains but Still Off 20 Percent From Last Year, Industry Retail SAAR Up 13 Percent Over Last Month

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — July 28, 2011 — Toyota appears to be well on its way toward recovery following its new car sales and inventory struggles over the past few months, according to Edmunds.com's July 2011 U.S. automotive sales forecast. With 134,480 light vehicle sales in July, the Japanese automaker will make a strong month-over-month gain, up 21.2 percent over June — exceeded only by Nissan, which is expected to make a remarkable 27.8 percent month-over-month gain. The increased sales will mean a big a jump in Toyota's U.S. market share, which Edmunds.com projects will increase 2.1 percentage points month-over-month to 12.6 percent.

"Inventory issues are not seriously holding back Toyota anymore, and a 25 percent month-over-month boost in incentives are helping the company finally pick up the sales momentum that it needed," said Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at Edmunds.com. "But with sales expected to be off more than 20 percent compared to July 2010, Toyota still has a long way to go."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume Jul-11 Forecast Jul-10 Jun-11 Change from July 2010 Change from July 2010 (adjusted)* Change from June 2011
GM 216,880 199,612 215,335 8.7% 4.6% 0.7%
Ford 180,795 170,208 193,421 6.2% 2.3% -6.5%
Toyota 134,480 169,224 110,937 -20.5% -23.5% 21.2%
Chrysler 107,292 93,313 120,394 15.0% 10.7% -10.9%
Nissan 91,906 82,337 71,941 11.6% 7.5% 27.8%
Honda 81,884 112,437 83,892 -27.2% -29.9% -2.4%
Industry 1,066,102 1,049,672 1,052,772 1.6% -2.2% 1.3%
*NOTE: July 2011 had 27 sales days; July 2010 had 26

Honda, which has been experiencing severe post-earthquake pains in the last several months, is still struggling to rebuild inventory and sales. Edmunds.com projects that Honda will sell 2.4 percent fewer vehicles this month than in June, with its market share sliding another 0.3 percentage points over the same period.

Edmunds.com also projects weakened market share for Chrysler and Ford; each are expected to lose 1.4 percentage points, while GM is expected to drop just 0.1 point. Chrysler will take the biggest month-to-month sales hit in July, with 10.9 percent fewer vehicles sold than in June.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share Jul-11 Forecast Jul-10 Jun-11 Change from July 2010 Change from June 2011
GM 20.3% 19.0% 20.5% 1.3% -0.1%
Ford 17.0% 16.2% 18.4% 0.7% -1.4%
Toyota 12.6% 16.1% 10.5% -3.5% 2.1%
Chrysler 10.1% 8.9% 11.4% 1.2% -1.4%
Nissan 8.6% 7.8% 6.8% 0.8% 1.8%
Honda 7.7% 10.7% 8.0% -3.0% -0.3%

OVERALL SALES IMPROVE
Edmunds.com estimates 1,066,102 new car sales (including fleet sales) this month, a 1.6 percent increase over July 2010 and a 1.3 percent increase over last month. The estimated sales volume translates to a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 12.3 million light vehicles, nearly one million more than the 11.4 million SAAR reported in June. Retail SAAR was 9.1 million in June and is expected to reach 10.3 million in July — up about 13 percent. Edmunds.com projects that fleet will account for 16.5 percent of all sales in July.

"Prices are falling as dealer inventories are becoming more stable, so this boost in sales over last month was expected, and it is encouraging news for the auto industry," said Edmunds.com Chief Economist Lacey Plache. "But some pricing and supply issues are still restraining market growth and there is also an underlying question of whether there are larger economic issues at play.

Exactly how consumers react to next month's summer sales events will go a long way toward answering that question."

For ongoing updates on automotive industry news and analysis, please register to receive the AutoObserver.com newsletter at http://www.edmunds.com/newsletter.

Additional data on sales, market share and incentive spending can also be found in Edmunds.com's Data Center at http://www.autoobserver.com/car-data-center/.

About Edmunds (http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/index.html)

Edmunds publishes Web sites that empower, engage and educate automotive consumers, enthusiasts and insiders. Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site and hosts the most established automotive community online. Its mobile site, accessible from any smartphone at www.edmunds.com, makes car pricing and other research tools available for car shoppers at dealerships and otherwise on the go. InsideLine.com is the most-read automotive enthusiast Web site. Its mobile site, accessible from any smartphone at www.insideline.com, features the wireless Web's highest quality car photos and videos. AutoObserver.com provides insightful automotive industry commentary and analysis. Edmunds is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit. Follow Edmunds.com on Twitter@edmunds and fan Edmunds.com on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/edmunds.

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