New Vehicle Sales Expected to Slip in July, Edmunds Forecasts

New Vehicle Sales Expected to Slip in July, Edmunds Forecasts

Analysts predict sales to begin slowing down after a strong start to the first half of the year


SANTA MONICA, CA — July 25, 2018 — Edmunds forecasts that 1,378,108 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in July for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.7 million. This reflects a 10.7 percent decrease in sales from June 2018 and a 2.3 percent decrease from July 2017. Edmunds experts note that an unseasonably strong June may have played a role in pulling ahead sales.

"July sales are looking reasonably strong, but we're starting to see the first signs of speed bumps on the road ahead," said Jeremy Acevedo, manager of industry analysis at Edmunds. "With market factors such as rising interest rates keeping shoppers at bay, we expect to see a continued slowdown of the vigorous sales pace that the industry experienced in the first half of the year."

Edmunds experts note sales experienced a lift in the first half of the month thanks to Fourth of July sales, but then dropped in the second half of the month.

"Sales likely slowed down due to a dry-up of deals as automakers wrapped up Fourth of July sales," said Acevedo. "As consumer wallets get increasingly squeezed by rising prices through the second half of the year, holiday sales events may play an increasingly significant role in getting shoppers to the dealership."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
July 2018
Forecast
July
2017
June
2018
Change from
July 2017
Change from
June 2018
GM 223,844 226,107 255,882 -1.0% -12.5%
Toyota 206,569 222,057 209,602 -7.0% -1.4%
Ford 196,274 199,318 229,537 -1.5% -14.5%
Fiat Chrysler 165,797 161,477 202,264 2.7% -18.0%
Honda 140,770 150,980 146,563 -6.8% -4.0%
Nissan 121,878 128,295 145,096 -5.0% -16.0%
Hyundai/Kia 108,977 110,466 120,623 -1.3% -9.7%
VW/Audi 48,004 45,915 48,412 4.5% -0.8%
Industry 1,378,108 1,410,601 1,542,641 -2.3% -10.7%
*GM sales totals for June 2018 are estimated

**NOTE: July 2018 had 24 selling days, July 2017 had 25, and June 2018 had 27.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.3 million vehicles in July 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 14.4 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.4 million used vehicles will be sold in July 2018, for a SAAR of 39.5 million (compared to 3.2 million — or a SAAR of 39.2 million —in June).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share
July 2018
Forecast
July
2017
June
2018
Change from
July 2017
Change from
June 2018
GM 16.2% 16.0% 16.6% 0.2% -0.3%
Toyota 15.0% 15.7% 13.6% -0.8% 1.4%
Ford 14.2% 14.1% 14.9% 0.1% -0.6%
Fiat Chrysler 12.0% 11.4% 13.1% 0.6% -1.1%
Honda 10.2% 10.7% 9.5% -0.5% 0.7%
Nissan 8.8% 9.1% 9.4% -0.3% -0.6%
Hyundai/Kia 7.9% 7.8% 7.8% 0.1% 0.1%
VW/Audi 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 0.2% 0.3%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

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