Edmunds.com Forecasts October Auto Sales: Not Scary but Not Thrilling Either

Edmunds.com Forecasts October Auto Sales: Not Scary but Not Thrilling Either


Edmunds.com Forecasts October Auto Sales: Not Scary but Not Thrilling Either

SANTA MONICA, Calif. -- October 28, 2010 -- This month's new car sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be approximately 920,200 units, a 10.8 percent increase from October 2009 but a 3.4 percent decrease from September 2010, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information. Retail sales are expected to be approximately 754,000 units, down from approximately 765,000 last month.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that October's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) for retail and fleet auto sales will be nearly 11.9 million, up from 11.7 in September 2010. SAAR for retail sales will be about 9.7 million, up from 9.4 million last month.

"This month's SAAR is the highest since September 2008, not counting the Cash for Clunkers aberration," Senior Analyst Ray Zhou, PhD told AutoObserver.com. In September 2008, SAAR was 12.6 million. "In early October, dealership traffic was strong, but toward the end of the month consumers pulled back, perhaps waiting for Thanksgiving weekend deals" Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Ray Zhou, PhD, told www.autoobserver.com.

Average automaker incentives in the U.S. are estimated to be $2,498 per vehicle sold in October 2010, down $61, or 2.4 percent, from September 2010, and down $172, or 6.4 percent, from October 2009.

"Consumers are being drawn to new models that have minimal incentives," stated Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "It seems consumer confidence is returning a bit and some pent-up demand is being realized."

October 2010 will have 27 selling days, one fewer than last October 2009. The chart below sets forth predicted month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons:

  Change from October 2009 (Adjusted for fewer selling days) Change from October 2009 (Unadjusted for fewer selling days) Change from Sept 2010 (Unadjusted for more selling days)
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) 45.3% 40.1% -8.6%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury) 22.1% 17.7% -1.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saturn) -0.4% -3.9% -2.1%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 19.2% 15.0% 0.9%
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) 15.1% 11.0% -10.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) -5.0% -8.4% -5.3%
Industry Total 14.9% 10.8% -3.4%

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 45.1 percent in October 2010, up from 44.9 percent in October 2009 and up slightly from 45.0 percent in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 91,100 units in October 2010, up 40.1 percent compared to October 2009 but down 8.6 percent from September 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 9.9 percent for Chrysler in October 2010, up from 7.8 percent in October 2009 but down from 10.5 percent as in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 154,500 units in October 2010, up 17.7 percent compared to October 2009 but down 1.1 percent from September 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 16.8 percent of new car sales in October 2010 for Ford, up from 15.8 percent in October 2009 and up from 16.4 percent in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 169,400 units in October 2010, down 3.9 percent compared to October 2009 and down 2.1 percent from September 2010. GM's market share is expected to be 18.4 percent of new vehicle sales in October 2010, down from 21.2 percent in October 2009 but up from 18.2 percent in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 98,300 units in October 2010, up 15.0 percent from October 2009 and up 0.9 percent from September 2010. Honda's market share is expected to be 10.7 percent in October 2010, up from 10.3 percent in October 2009 and up from 10.2 percent in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 66,600 units in October 2010, up 11.0 percent from October 2009 but down 10.3 percent from September 2010. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.2 percent in October 2010, flat from 7.2 percent in October 2009 but down from 7.8 percent in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 139,400 units in October 2010, down 8.4 percent from October 2009 and down 5.3 percent from September 2010. Toyota's market share is expected to be 15.1 percent in October 2010, down from 18.3 percent in October 2009 and down from 15.4 percent in September 2010.

About Edmunds.com, Inc. (http://www.edmunds.com/about/)
Edmunds.com Inc. publishes four Web sites that empower, engage and educate automotive consumers, enthusiasts and insiders. Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site. Its mobile site, accessible from any smartphone at www.edmunds.com, makes car pricing and other research tools available for car shoppers at dealerships and otherwise on the go. InsideLine.com is the most-read automotive enthusiast Web site. Its mobile site, accessible from any smartphone at www.insideline.com, features the wireless Web's highest quality car photos and videos. CarSpace is the most established automotive social networking Web site. AutoObserver.com provides insightful automotive industry commentary and analysis. Edmunds.com Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit. Follow Edmunds.com on Twitter@edmunds and fan Edmunds.com on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/edmunds.

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