Edmunds.com Forecasts February Auto Sales: SAAR Continues on Steady Path, Even as Toyota Market Share Falters

Edmunds.com Forecasts February Auto Sales: SAAR Continues on Steady Path, Even as Toyota Market Share Falters


Edmunds.com Forecasts February Auto Sales: SAAR Continues on Steady Path, Even as Toyota Market Share Falters

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — February 24, 2011 — This month's new car sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be approximately 937,000 units, a 20.1 percent increase from February 2010 and a 14.4 percent increase from January 2011, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information. Retail sales are expected to be approximately 743,000 units, up from approximately 662,000 last month, a 12 percent bump that's in line with the expected seasonal increase.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that February's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 12.64 million, up from 12.54 in January 2011. SAAR for retail sales remained flat from last month at about 10.1 million.

Average automaker incentives in the U.S. are estimated to be $2,530 per vehicle sold in February 2011, down $31, or 1.2 percent, from January 2011, and down $127, or 4.8 percent, from February 2010.

"February started slow, but it gained plenty of momentum over President's Day weekend," commented Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "It was also the fifth consecutive month with a SAAR over 12 million, which is a good sign as the industry presses forward into March."

February 2011 had 24 selling days, the same as February 2010. The chart below sets forth month-over-month comparisons:

  Change from February 2010 Change from January 2011
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Jeep, Ram)
3.7%
24.9%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury)
7.0%
19.7%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saturn)
36.7%
8.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda)
16.3%
23.0%
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan)
26.6%
23.7%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)
28.8%
11.2%
Industry Total
20.1%
14.4%

"General Motors continues to have the highest market share, but it also leads the other Big 6 automakers in incentive spending by a healthy margin," added Caldwell. "Toyota's market share, on the other hand, has fallen to its lowest level since its issues with unintended acceleration reached its peak this time last year. It can't start rolling out their new products fast enough."

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 128,800 units in February 2011, up 28.8 percent from February 2010 and up 11.2 percent from January 2011. Toyota's market share is expected to be 13.7 percent in February 2011, up from 12.8 percent in February 2010 but down from 14.1 percent in January 2011.

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 46.2 percent in February 2011, down from 47.2 percent in February 2010 but up from 45.9 percent in January 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 87,600 units in February 2011, up 3.7 percent compared to February 2010 and up 24.9 percent from January 2011. This would result in a new car market share of 9.3 percent for Chrysler in February 2011, down from 10.8 percent in February 2010 but up from 8.6 percent as in January 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 151,900 units in February 2011, up 7.0 percent compared to February 2010 and up 19.7 percent from January 2011. This would result in a new car market share of 16.2 percent of new car sales in February 2011 for Ford, down from 18.2 percent in February 2010 but up from 15.5 percent in January 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 193,500 units in February 2011, up 36.7 percent compared to February 2010 and up 8.4 percent from January 2011. GM's market share is expected to be 20.7 percent of new vehicle sales in February 2011, up from 18.1 percent in February 2010 but down from 21.8 percent in January 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 93,800 units in February 2011, up 16.3 percent from February 2010 and up 23.0 percent from January 2011. Honda's market share is expected to be 10.0 percent in February 2011, down from 10.3 percent in February 2010 but up from 9.3 percent in January 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 88,900 units in February 2011, up 26.6 percent from February 2010 and up 23.7 percent from January 2011. Nissan's market share is expected to be 9.5 percent in February 2011, up from 9.0 percent in February 2010 and up from 8.8 percent in January 2011.

About Edmunds.com, Inc. (http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/index.html)

Edmunds.com Inc. publishes Web sites that empower, engage and educate automotive consumers, enthusiasts and insiders. Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site and hosts the most established automotive community online. Its mobile site, accessible from any smartphone at www.edmunds.com, makes car pricing and other research tools available for car shoppers at dealerships and otherwise on the go. InsideLine.com is the most-read automotive enthusiast Web site. Its mobile site, accessible from any smartphone at www.insideline.com, features the wireless Web's highest quality car photos and videos. AutoObserver.com provides insightful automotive industry commentary and analysis. Edmunds.com Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit. Follow Edmunds.com on Twitter@edmunds and fan Edmunds.com on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/edmunds.

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