Auto Sales Expected to Dip in April, Edmunds Forecasts

Auto Sales Expected to Dip in April, Edmunds Forecasts

Analysts predict sales to begin tapering off following an unexpectedly strong first quarter


SANTA MONICA, CA — April 25, 2018 — Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,335,313 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in April for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.9 million. This reflects a 19 percent decrease in sales from March 2018 and a 6 percent decrease from April 2017. Analysts note that there were 24 selling days in April this year, compared to 26 last year.

"April's sales slip may seem disheartening, but the spike we saw in March was an anomaly considering our expectations for 2018," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis. "Overall, we expect April will still be a solid month and more of a true indicator of where sales are trending for the year as demand declines and interest rates continue to rise. Sales are still in a very healthy place, and we're seeing encouraging signs that automakers are continuing to improve their product mixes and inventory levels to match consumer demand."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales
Volume
April
2018 Forecast
April
2017
March
2018
Change from
April 2017
Change from
March 2018
GM 237,464 244,406 296,341 -2.8% -19.9%
Ford 203,373 213,436 243,021 -4.7% -16.3%
Toyota 187,466 201,926 222,782 -7.2% -15.9%
Fiat Chrysler 169,706 176,176 216,063 -3.7% -21.5%
Honda 126,923 138,386 142,392 -8.3% -10.9%
Nissan 109,049 121,998 162,535 -10.6% -32.9%
Hyundai/Kia 101,446 116,408 112,185 -12.9% -9.6%
VW/Audi 43,821 46,268 52,638 -5.3% -16.8%
Industry 1,335,313 1,420,602 1,648,239 -6.0% -19.0%
*NOTE: April 2018 had 24 selling days, April 2017 had 26 and March 2018 had 28.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.5 million vehicles in April 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 20.1 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.5 million used vehicles will be sold in April 2018, for a SAAR of 39.2 million (compared to 3.7 million — or a SAAR of 39.2 million — in March).

Market
Share
April
2018 Forecast
April
2017
March
2018
Change from
April 2017
Change from
March 2018
GM 17.8% 17.2% 18.0% 0.6% -0.2%
Ford 15.2% 15.0% 14.7% 0.2% 0.5%
Toyota 14.0% 14.2% 13.5% -0.2% 0.5%
Fiat Chrysler 12.7% 12.4% 13.1% 0.3% -0.4%
Honda 9.5% 9.7% 8.6% -0.2% 0.9%
Nissan 8.2% 8.6% 9.9% -0.4% -1.7%
Hyundai/Kia 7.6% 8.2% 6.8% -0.6% 0.8%
VW/Audi 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1%
 

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at https://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds is the leading car information and shopping platform, helping millions of visitors each month find their perfect car. With products such as Edmunds Your Price, Your Lease and Used+, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at more than 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Edmunds' in-house team of unbiased car-shopping experts provide industry-leading vehicle reviews and shopping tips, and the company also has a 20-year-old forums community of car shoppers and enthusiasts, where members can get shopping advice and learn what others are buying and leasing cars for. The company is regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work. Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Michigan.

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