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Saw 2 of them

by dean3927 on Sat Nov 15 19:32:49 PST 2008

I just saw 2 non-dealer Genesises on the road (Lake Elsinore, on Collier and 74). The first one seemed to be silver (it was twilight, so hard to tell), and I only caught the rear-left quadrant. At first I thought it was a Bimmer 5 series, but knew something was different. Turned my head as it passed to my left, and sure enough, the "flying H" was prominently displayed. The second one was just minutes later, a beautiful light-blue. Again, wasn't sure what it was, and thought it was a Lexus LS for a while just based on the taillights, then noticed that some details were definitely not Lexus. Moved up right behind it to take a picture with my cell phone, and sure enough, saw the "flying H." I passed it on the right, and it was an elderly couple, with the lady driving. If I am not mistaken, she had a big smile on her face - not surprised. BTW, I stopped by Garden Grove Hyundai a couple of months ago, and not only did they have 8+ Genesises on the lot, it was unexpected to find 2 V8's - one silver, one black, I think.

Lincoln: Arming the World

by douglasr on Tue Feb 06 17:20:00 PST 2007

"Will it Run".... ...the nick-name given to Willow-Run. If ever there was a demonstration of American industry's ability to respond to crisis, WWII was it. Ford Motor is now in the same kind of crisis, and will take the same kind of effort to survive. "Why does it take two years...?" ---to build a car, a good question. Looking back to the war years one can appreciate what was possible back then, when ENIAC computer computations were but pencil notes on Alan Turning's notebooks---slide rules, drafting boards, and vaccuum tubes ruled the day. Charles Sorensen recounts his efforts to get Willow Run off the ground, and he did so BEFORE the start of WWII. Sorensen responded because FDR was curtailing supplies to auto firms to make cars from 1940 onwards, well before Pearl Harbor, in order to meet demand for Lend-Lease and the British War Effort. He engaged to spend $200Mn for the plant ($880Mn in 2006 dollars) without having a contract in hand. Even so his memoirs clearly state the trouble building Willow Run was: "Doing business with the government, treading though the maze of controls and frequently conflicting priorities, regulations, vexed by wild-cat strikes, labour and housing shortages to say nothing of erratic deliveries of essential materials were a frustrating experience." Not to forget that Ford Motor endeavored to build a product not designed by them (Consolidated Aero was the designer) and here-to-fore of designs far more modern than Tri-Motors, and never attempted on a mass scale. When one looks at the time table and result achieved it becomes apparent that miracles can happen. January 8, 1941: Meeting with Edsel, HFII, and Benson Ford at San Diego to see test flights of the new B-24. Design for a factory layed out overnight by Sorensen. February 25, 1941: Approval in Washington D.C. April 18, 1941: Factory Ground-breaking May 3, 1941: First Structural Steel errected August 12, 1941: First machines and tooling installed November 15, 1941: First production man hours December 7, 1941: Japan attacks Pearl Harbor, War Declared February 11, 1942: All passenger car production halted June 6, 1942: First Knock-Down assemblies delivered September 10, 1942: First completed B-24 rolls off the line at Willow Run. FDR tours Willow Run with the Henry Ford. Production at Willow run in 1943: 2,184 bombers. In 1944: 4,611---nearly half its capacity making 20 bombers per day! The mile long factory would attain its 1 bomber per hour target during 1944-45. For GM it was much the same. The last Cadillac rolled off the Clarck Avenue line February 11, 1942. 55 days later the first Cadillac V8 Automatic powered M5/M24 tank rolled off the same assebmly line. GM had never built tanks before and had entered into an area of manufacture which improvisation was the order of the day. Especially considering that more than 114,000 of their employees left to serve in the Armed Forces causing GM and Ford Motor to hire women to take their place---a factor that would rise to 34% during the war. They had to reconfigure assembly lines and train women who had no prior factory experience to do the jobs done previously by men. One example of the efficiency attained by GM rapidly during the war years was the fact that in all of 1939 they built 800 Allison V1710 aero engines. By December 1941 that figure rose to 1,110 per month. During the war GM, like Ford and Chrysler overturned all operations to meet government contracts. GM alone built $12.4Bn ($54.12Bn in 2006 dollars*) worth of armaments and munitions for the war effort. 11.8 to 22.5% of that amount represented either Tanks, or vehicles and armored cars, for a combined total of nearly 34%, The balance, roughly 45% represented air-craft and parts GM has never built before. They used 5,400 machine tools, 2,000 plus owned by the government, 13,500 suppliers and operated 120 plants to attain war-time production goals. "Of the $12 Billion of military equipment turned out by GM, $8Bn was represented by products entirely new to us." GM CEO Alfred Sloan recounted in his memoirs. After the war it took little time for Ford Motor and GM, among others to regain production of passenger cars. August 24, 1945 the last M24 tank rolled off the line at Cadillac. Less than two months later on October 17, 1945 the first post-war Cadillac rolled off the line, albeit missing certain amenities due to materials rationing. For Ford it was not much different---both firms having planned early in the war (1943) for post-war production. The first "official" post-war Lincoln Custom rolled out of the Lincoln plant November 1, 1945 with regular Ford production having started July 3, 1945. Sorensen put it best: "The only thing we can't make is something we can't think about." Therefore it is entirely possible for Ford Motor to put itself on a war-time footing and match its performance and then some during the dark years of the 1940's. No one can beleive that a wholly new car could be built in less than two years, but Ford has enough materials and access to design staff and suppliers to revamp what it currently builds into something far more exciting and enticing than today's products in less time. They can start at Lincoln---so long neglected. MR. Ford will have to put his disdain for the brand aside if Mr. Mulally is to succeed and save The Blue Oval. DouglasR *by contrast the 2007 proposed U.S.Budget for defense spending is $615Bn, $145Bn of which is for war materials and engagement. (Sources: 'My Forty Years with Ford', Charles E. Sorensen, Collier Books NY 1962; 'Cadillac, Seventy Five Years of Excellence', Maurice D. Hendry, Motorbooks International 1975; 'Lincoln & Continental Classic Motorcars' Marvin Arnold, Taylor Publising 1989; 'My Years with General Motors' Alred Sloan, DoubleDay 1963; NYT, WSJ)

Cadillac, WWII and the American Industry II

by douglasr on Fri Dec 22 07:35:06 PST 2006

To correct a misconception: Willow Run was built at the edge of Wayne County in 1941, by Ford Motor Company to produce B17 and B24 bombers.* The project was approved February 25, 1941, and by November 15 of that year the first production man hours began---and by July 12, 1942 the first knock down units were completed. Production would rise thereafter up to 4,611 Bombers per a year, with a maximum rate of 650 per month. Prior to that Aero firms as Consolidated had used hand-craft methods to build planes. By contrast Ford's giant $1.5Bn River Rouge plant had been the brainchild of Charles Sorensen and Henry Ford to rationalise production and supplies in one spot. The moving assembly line was the solution to the problem of meeting demand for a product they had created, but could not satisfy using concurrent methods prior to 1913. It took a decade to complete, but by October 31, 1925 The Rouge was able to produce 10,000 cars per day and displacing Highland Park as the most modern U.S. manufacturing plant. Ford's compeitotrs all took note...many of them touring the plant to measure the methods. What Eiji Toyota changed, was not just-in-time delivery of materials as Ford had begun, but elimating wastage at the assembly line---preventing excess inventory from clogging the factory floor---effectively creating a 'demand-pull' system through its suppliers. Not unlike what Wall-Mart does today with its suppliers in China. This was borne of necessity since most Japanese factories do not have the luxury of square footage of American ones, not could Toyota afford to "stock" large amounnts of inventory after WWII. Toyota also based many of designs off one platform, so that cost advantages could be gained. But in this he merely copied what Alfred Sloan had implanted at GM. There's no doubt the Japanese improved upon the American manufacturing system. It is where they started for inspiration after 1945. Toyota imported its first two cars to the U.S. in 1958, but their target then was VW---not Ford or Chevy. But look where Toyota and other Japanese manufacturers are now. Why it is equally important for Cadillac to step up to the plate, and show the home team colors. Cadillac has also revised its platforms to meet demands of the Chinese market, and is a leader there. But they must lead here too. The WWII experience of the American manufacturers proved that under duress, great things could be achieved, overcoming often impossible odds. The same can be attained again today. DouglasR *Willow run literally sat on the county line. By doing so, Ford skiirted the Wayne County UAW rules, allowing them to hire workers with greater flexibility. When President Roosevelt toured Willow Run September 18, 1942 the Presidential Lincoln turned left down the long assembly line hall, FDR turned to Henry Ford and said: "So this is the county line?" (Source: 'My Forty Years with Ford', Charles E. Sorensen, Collier Books, NY 1962)

ARMING Lincoln & The New World Order

by douglasr on Mon Oct 02 11:15:35 PDT 2006

The GM board meets tomorrow to hash out the numbers proposed between Nissan-Renault and GM's own calculations about their prosective merger with Mr. Ghosn. No doubt dissention between the numbers will force an independent audit...but the telling remark is made by GM's CEO of OPEL Hans Demant commented to James Mackintosh of the FT: "We are approaching Toyota...Toyota is also improving but not at the pace we are..." GM-Europe on a drive to outpace its competitors in the build-quality department, especially Toyota---Mr. Demant alluding to the fact that GM can do it alone. Left unsaid is that a merger would only slow them down from reaching their goal. IF GM-Europe can catch its rivals, then Mr. Ghosn has one less card to play and he will have to approach Mr. Ford once again. Twice he has turned down direct approaches from Bill Ford, so there would be little gained now if Ghosn came back to the table at Ford. Mr. Ford, while having been enamored of Mr. Ghosn's performance record and no doubt offered him a viable package to come to work for the Blue Oval, could not now turn his back on Mr. Mulally allowing Mr. Ghosn to come on board in any merger or alliance. Ghosn having made it clear he does not want to "work for" Bill Ford...his position within a merged Nissan-Renault-Ford would an awkward one. Mr. Ghosn has missed his mark, he will not be able to use the assets of N-R as a leverage against his larger rivals, and will be left standing alone to face his feared competitor: Toyota. Thus...having no capable or pallitable executive to choose from to ease his burdens and salve the troubles at Ford Motor, Bill Ford had no choice but to go outside the auto industry. A gamble, yes. Mr. Mulally's learning curve is going to have to equal that of one of his former 777's, or an F18A if he is to succeed. So both men are playing a very high stakes game. But he is merely following the same course taken by HFII in 1945. Breech and his team from the Strategic Bombing Survey and War Production Board had no more experience at building cars rather than bombs and airframes than Mr. Mulally does. Yet Breech and his men, under HFII, transformed Ford Motor: the company went from 18.82% of the market in 1948 (third behind Chrysler) to 30.07% in 1957---marking Ford's highest market penetration in less than a decade. True, they did it in an expanding market where demand for autos was high, the market today is three times as large, the Chinese expansion also representing both opportunity and challenge for Ford Motor on the same scale. Regardless of whether or not we like ARM, whether or not we see him as a "suit" or a "nuts and bolts guy" (He is, of course, and engineer and pilot in his own right, also building his own small plane for fun.), the fate of Ford Motor is clearly in his hands. He is in the hot seat, the same kind our current Secretary of Defense is in...though our industrial strength, competitiveness, and jobs are at stake given ARM's decisions---not lives. But in a sense, lives are at stake on another level. He will not want to be known at the 'Roy Hurley' of his generation---the man who destroyed both Curtiss-Wright and Studebaker-Packard---he will not to find himself in the sequel to Douglas Brinkley's Book on Ford Motor, 'Wheels for the World', as the "man who destroyed Ford". On his watch, far more is at stake than just building a better Lexus, or even saving Lincoln. As even Nissan is shifting some car production out of America back to Japan---"to enhance our profitability", though they seek a larger foot print here, the trend remains a negative one in this country in terms of auto manufacturing and profitability. That's the crux of the issue. Paying your employees a livable wage while making an enhance product with higher and higher content and quality levels---all against a backdrop of incremental increasing supply costs and inflation. This is the 'New World Order' we now face, and why the CEO of VWAG called it a "race" instead of a "marathon". If you think ARM drives into the Glass House thinking that second best is winning---then we underestimate not only his own record, but the chance presented that he can turn the tide, and set a new record at Ford---making it a "Number One" company again. I would not be surprised if he directs meetings leaving his jacket off---rolling up his shirtsleeves like every good engineer. DouglasR Sources: FT, WSJ, 'The Fords', Peter Collier and David Horowitz, Summit Books, NY 1987

Lincoln & The Road Ahead III

by douglasr on Sat Jul 01 18:23:13 PDT 2006

"Charlie, I'm going to do that job, and you're going to help me..." Charles Sorensen in conversation with the Henry Ford, August 1906 with respect to the Model T---the concept of which Ford developed against the wishes of his backers. "When I took over...I felt like I was holding up a collapsing building with an umbrella." ---Bill Ford Jr. in 1998. Six years later, he would add: "Where does all this put us now? I'd say we went from about the bottom of the barrel to about the middle of the pack. But is that good enough?" WCF Jr's answer is instructive: "No...I did not join this company to be average...We aspire to be great, because this is our heritage." Mr. Ford recollects in his 2005 book: "Ford Tough'. From where I sit, I see a ray of hope. For today Mr. Ford has abandoned his desire to build a quarter-million hybrid vehicles (which are NOT profitable)---freeing his company for capital investment in product. His company has opened a tech & design center at Dearborn to rival that of his cross-town "friends" at Chrysler. Despite terrible sales losses, and extreme levels of capital investment, top-line Jaguars have earned a respective first rank place in the marketplace in terms of engineering and quality, as have Astons under Ford Motor ownership. The lessons learned there applied to Lincoln and Continental in the future. The pressure of the competition---especially a GM-Nissan-Renault Tie-Up---will spur a rethinking of future options at Ford, these must ultimately place Lincoln squarely in their plans. I see a rationalisation of Ford's 103 plants world-wide to fight the now global marketplace. Yet due to the lag time between product and market-place, the bets placed at the table must be bold ones, and right ones. "This industry is not for the faint of heart" Lee Iacocca once said in an interview---that feeling echoed by Mr. Lutz in his book 'Guts'. Yet the shocking fact remains that 50 people are reponsible for the options placed on the table that became the 'Way Forward Plan'---thus the closing of Wixom, and the abrogation of Lincoln as a viable marque. 750,000 people wrote Ford Motor when Alex Troutman was CEO---urging Ford not to stop production of Mustang. As a result Troutman repsonded: "$750Mn, and not a dime more." And Mustang lives today. It is, in small and large part, the efforts of the thousands of people working for Ford, my own family included, that has made the company what it is, then and now. To wish for a greater future, to outline a path which evidently is not being taken, to outline ideas worth considering no matter the messenger, and put together pieces within the grasp of the company to make greater products is no delusion. To motivate the people who make the steel real becomes as much of the battle as it is to make it. It is a hard reality. Otherwise Ford would not have hired designers as J. Mays and Freeman Thomas, would not have allowed Dr. Bez alone to sire Astons to victory, nor given Ian Callum a free hand at Jaguar---nor given Peter Horbury bailiwick to revive Lincoln. To consider the future without being well aware of where you have come from, is dangerous at best. Otherwise we would all be riding horses, and Charles Sorensen would never have had the chance to make the Henry Ford's ideas a reality---for they were considered impossible. It is Bill Ford Jr. that speaks of 'heritage'---therefore fair enough to raise the heritage of Lincoln with respect to its future. It was Bill Ford Jr. that rushed to the Rouge the second week of his Chairmanship to aide wounded workers in a Steel Furnace Fire. It was Bill Ford Jr. who chose to revive The Rouge. And if one assembly plant is synonomous with "Ford", than The Rouge is it. That $2Bn investment was no delusion---thus as Ford is The Rouge, then Lincoln represents something in and of itself in the same fashion---to which '...as Lincoln goes, so goes the nation...' It is Bill Ford Jr. that replaced the Blue Oval sign atop the Glass House---a symbol both of the future and the past, and equally paramount to preserve the symbols of Lincoln. And not unlike his famous uncle, Henry Ford II, placed in the seat of one of the largest corporations somewhat unexpectedly---but having to learn on the job, thus his admonishion not to be 'average' . Yet I see that there is a greater path that he can take, far beyond the average, not only for Ford, but for Lincoln too---but he has to walk into The Glass House each day sorting the future for Ford, five years in advance, and that is no delusion. Harley Earl once said that he does not live in the 'present', but only 'four years into the future....', but Bill Ford has to do both---the present and the future. And that is no delusion. Can we afford to let him make the mistake of not considering his public---those that use, own, and want to buy the products his company makes? The answer is a resounding NO, and that is no delusion. The details will make themselves clear enough from this public soon enough---but all great products come from great ideas. As it was once said in this nation: "Some may say when they see things and declare, "Why", but I look at the future and say: "Why Not?" DouglasR Sources: 'My Forty Years With Ford', Charles Sorensen, Collier Books NY 1962; 'Ford Tough', Bill Ford Jr. with David Magee, John Wiley & Sons, Detroit 2005; Speeches of Robert F. Kennedy, JFK Library, Boston, Ma.; 'Guts', Robert Lutz, John Wiley & Sons, Detroit)

Lincoln & The fate of Ford Motor

by douglasr on Tue Jun 27 19:35:48 PDT 2006

The $5 a day wage was worked out on a second floor office chalk board by the Henry Ford, Charles Sorensen, John R. Lee, and Ed Martin---all engineering, production, and accounting men at the Piquette Avenue Plant---and then announced by Ford Motor's Chief Financial Officer James Couzens. Equivalent to $92 an hour today, it was done not only to create customers for the products, but to lower production costs. Ford Motor able to build and sell ever more cars with increased buying power of its workforce, with further spread costs over a greater number of units, allowing the price to drop---creating still yet more customers for the burgeoning auto market. On this same day in 1923, June 27, the statue by F. Derwent Wood of Sir Frederick Henry Royce was unveiled at Derby---in accord with Royce's contribution to the Allied Victory in WWI with the Rolls-Royce aero-engine development and production. If Mr. Ford and MR. Fields fail in their efforts within their new Design Center at Dearborn to revitalise the Ford Empire, no statues to William Clay Ford Jr. will ever be erected. If he fails in his efforts, few will ever call him "Sir". Today, as Ford Motor spends up to $150,000 per worker to 'buy-out' 10,000 workers contracts; GM spending $108,517 per worker to 'buy-out' 35,000 workers---one quarter of its work-force; VWAG buying out 1,000 workers at Wolfsburg in a similar though not as expensive fashion (yet Wolfsburg work-week is 28.8 hrs per week.) Combined the two firms are spening more than $5Bn to eliminate jobs. Equivalent to what Ford Motor spent on Jaguar. Equal to what it could have spent on Lincoln: $1.5bn. Across the ocean, tiny Rolls-Royce leads the industry in labour relations: begining a four-year apprenticeship program for a small cadre of 16-24 year old men and women, each of whom will work in all facets of assembly and manufacture at Goodwood. "We are delighted to launch this program which demonstrates our ongoing commitment to development and training of young people in the U.K. Manufacturing industry...." Rolls-Royce CEO Ian Robertson commented upon the initiation of the program (06-09-06). He added: "Every Rolls-Royce is hand-built to the highest levels of quality and our new apprentices will join a dedicated team of craftsmen and women." A speech not heard on these shores in some time, by any American auto executive. Mr. Robertson's words echo the words of Henry M. Leland when he began the Lincoln Motor Company, and the first Model L chassis rolled out of the Livernois Avenue plant: "Boys...you've been telling us your ideas, and now we are ready to go ahead with them...You know our ideas as to quality, ruggedness, and reliability. You have an opportunity now such as you never had before." HML admonished his workforce, telling them of the superiority of the design they were helping to build. He added in conclusion that day in 1919: "Do the job as you have always been accustomed to doing, only do it better." Since Mr. Ford has chosen to lead his company, appear in advertisements, stump the nation with Mr. Fields as to the causes of the Ford Motor Company, the fate of Lincoln then as important as any other issue within our marketplace today. Given its rank within Ford Motor, it remains the pivotal division within the company with respect to the long term future of Ford Motor's Empire. Lincoln's Hermisilio workers do not make what their Highland Park precedessors once made: no where near the equivalent $92 an hour. And no one will stand within the factory gates in paterinalistic fashion excoriating the workforce to "do your best, only do it better." in terms of Lincoln---the MkZ being just another unit on the line. The only hope remains that the designers and engineers within the Dearborn Center working behind computer screens, will have the same verve and vibe for their work that their predecessors did working at black-boards and hand-finishing wooden and steel patterns for parts never made before decades ago. One day soon, Bill Ford must stand before a new Lincoln, unveiling it to the public. He must not leave that to the minions beneath him. And he will have to speak the words that call not only to the present and the future, but to all the roads and miles past that Lincoln has travelled. For his predecessors both at Ford and Lincoln did not know the meaning of 'impossible'...and that is what Mr. Ford must now do: say that the future of Lincoln is not an impossible one. Nor can he skirt the issue with bromides about safety, fuel economy, or environmental issues---for the product still remains king. Lincoln's fate not falling into the hands of a cold announcement from a union chief across our borders---Mr. Hargrove not becoming the arbiter of Lincoln's future. When F. Derwent Wood's statue of Royce was unveiled, Royce, or 'R' as he was known, stated: "but I am not dead yet." Bill Ford may well find himself very much alive, on the day that Ford Motor finds itself in peril without a viable Lincoln Motor Company---should he not now make the same remarks his predecessors had---one that inspire and lead men and women all in the same moment. Working "Over to Ford's" should mean something again, (as my family often called it), as it does for those who work for Rolls-Royce. It should mean far more than that for those who design, assemble, and manufacture Lincoln. Only then, perhaps, will Bill Ford earn a sobriquet as R is fondly known---though something other perhaps than "F"! As Lincoln goes, So goes the Nation... DouglasR (Sources: Rolls-Royce Motorcars Ltd; 'The Lincoln Motorcar, Sixty Years of Excellence' Thomas E. Bonsall, BookmanPublishing, Baltimore Md, 1981; 'My Forty Years with Ford' Charles E. Sorensen, Collier 1962)