An Updated Look at August Sales

Perhaps it is because the summer selling season is in full swing, or perhaps consumers are catching on to all the "hidden" incentives I noted last week. Whatever the cause, the retail sales pace over the past week has picked up. If things continue, retail sales should end up around 1.06m units for a SAAR of 12.0m. This compares with retail sales of 991,000 and a SAAR of 12.0m last month. We expect fleet sales to be up from July (to around 17-18%) so total sales for August should be 1.29m units and the SAAR will total 14.5m. This compares with 1.15m total sales and a SAAR of 14.1m last month.

Retail share-wise, compared to the same period last month, BMW, Honda and GM are up (BMW was very week in the first half of last month); while Chrysler and Nissan are down a little (Nissan was very strong last month); and the rest are stable. See below for details.

August Retail Share Change

If August does indeed match July's retail pace it will have to be considered good news. Edmunds is holding its forecast of 14.4m for all of 2012, but we also see building downside risk to achieving this number. Lacey will have more on this posted soon...

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