An Early Look at October Sales

An early look at October sales suggests that sales are running at around the same pace set in late September. Retail sales look like they will end up around 941,000, for a SAAR of 12.2m. This compares with sales of around 970,000 and a SAAR of 12.2m last month.

Fleet sales could be a surprise. In September, fleet sales were almost 2 points higher than normal. Does this mean there will be a "payback" in October, or will fleet sales still hit their norm of 20% for October? Too soon to say, but if we go with a reasonably level of 19% then October will end with total sales of 1.16m and a SAAR of 15.1m. This will match the SAAR set in February. (Under the old SAAR formula — the new formula has February at a much lower SAAR.)

Retail share changes are modest, with the exception of Honda and Mercedes. Here are the details:


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