I returned earlier this week from the NADA convention in Orlando. Although the "buzz" there was generally upbeat, many of the manufacturers I met with noted that they were feeling a slowdown in sales. What is interesting is that the sales pacing overall seems to be holding steady. It is when we dive deeper and look at individual manufacturer performance that is becomes clear that there are widespread declines. Offsetting this, both BMW and Ford are up sharply, which is keeping total sales level with January.
This data suggests that February retail sales will end up around 951k which is a SAAR of 12.3m. (Compared with 844k and a SAAR of 12.4m last month). If we assume a fleet mix of around 20.0% — February usually is 1% higher than that of January — then February will end with total new vehicle sales around 1189k and a SAAR of 15.4m. (This compares with 1042k and a SAAR of 15.3m last month).
Here are the details: