Looking at sales through mid month, the pacing is continuing at roughly the level established in the first quarter. The SAAR formula assumes a drop in unit sales from March to April but the drop is less than "normal." So far, the sales pacing points to April retail sales of 0.98m and a SAAR of 12.0m. This compares with unit sales of 1.11m and a SAAR of 11.4m SAAR last month.
Fleet sales tend to drop in April, so if we assume a fleet mix of around 18% — compared to around 20.6% last month — then April unit sales will total around 1.19m for a SAAR of 14.7m, which compares to 1.40m units sold and a SAAR of14.3m last month.
Looking at retail share changes, Honda is way up. Presumably they are finally seeing some relief from inventory constraints. GM and Mercedes Benz are up some as well, while Nissan and Ford are down quite bit. Here are the details: