An early look at October sales suggests that sales are running at around the same pace set in late September. Retail sales look like they will end up around 941,000, for a SAAR of 12.2m. This compares with sales of around 970,000 and a SAAR of 12.2m last month.
Fleet sales could be a surprise. In September, fleet sales were almost 2 points higher than normal. Does this mean there will be a "payback" in October, or will fleet sales still hit their norm of 20% for October? Too soon to say, but if we go with a reasonably level of 19% then October will end with total sales of 1.16m and a SAAR of 15.1m. This will match the SAAR set in February. (Under the old SAAR formula — the new formula has February at a much lower SAAR.)
Retail share changes are modest, with the exception of Honda and Mercedes. Here are the details: