June Car Sales Remain Weak, Edmunds.com Forecasts

By Michelle Krebs June 25, 2010

June car sales will show the auto industry still has not hit high gear due a continued hesitance by consumers to make a long-term commitment to a heft purchase like that of a new vehicle.

Edmunds.com forecasts June's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 11.2 million, down from 11.6 million in May, which was a weak month. June sales will total 992,500 vehicles,  a 16.6-percent increase from June 2009 but a 9.5 percent decrease from May.

"The industry is still recovering from the pull-ahead sales generated in March and over Memorial Day weekend, when automakers - led by Toyota - offered unseasonably high incentives and drew out a lot of bargain-hunters who may otherwise have waited to buy their cars during the summer," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds.com's director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com.

June has no special holiday weekend 'sales event,' whereas May has Memorial Day and July has Fourth of July.

It also appears some new car shoppers are shifting to lightly used cars, seeking value, which hurts automakers but helps dealers who generally make more money on used cars than new.

All of the Big Six automakers -- General Motors, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Chrysler and Nissan - will post gains over anemic June 2009 and all will post declines from May.

June numbers will show that Toyota continues to struggle. It is the only automaker of the Big Six to post market share declines from a year ago June as well as from May this year. Ford outsold Toyota again this year, making it increasingly likely that Ford will outsell Toyota for the full year, taking back the No. 2 sales spot.

Honda's market share is down from a year ago but improved from May. Honda continues to outsell Chrysler.

By the Numbers

The combined market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors in June is forecasted at 47.3 percent,  up from 46.1 percent in June 2009 but down from 47.4 percent in May.
 
Edmunds.com forecasts the following sales and market share by automaker:

GM will sell 204,700 vehicles, up 17.2 percent from June 2009 but down 8.4 percent from May for a market share of 20.6 percent, up from 20.5 percent in June 2009 and up from 20.4 percent in May.

Ford will sell 174,700 vehicles, up 16.8 percent from June 2009 but down 8.8 percent from May for a market share of 17.6 percent, the same as in June 2009 and up from 17.5 percent in May.

Toyota will sell 143,200 vehicles, up 8.9 percent from June 2009 but down 12.0 percent from May for a market share of 14.4 percent, down from 15.4 percent in June 2009 and down from 14.8 percent in May.

Honda will sell 108,400 vehicles, up 9.7 percent from June 2009 but down 7.5 percent from May for a market share of 10.9 percent, down from 11.6 percent in June 2009 but up from 10.7 percent in May.

Chrysler will sell 90,500 vehicles, up 33.2 percent compared to June 2009 but down 13.5 percent from May for a market share of 9.1 percent, up from 8.0 percent in June 2009 but down from 9.5 percent in May.

Nissan will sell 72,800 vehicles, up 24.9 percent from June 2009 but down 13.1 percent from May for a market share of 7.3 percent, up from 6.8 percent in June 2009 but down from 7.6 percent in May. 

 

Change from June 2009

Change from May 2010

Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep)

33.2%

-13.5%

Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo)

16.8%

-8.8%

GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

17.2%

-8.4%

Honda (Acura, Honda)

9.7%

-7.5%

Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan)

24.9%

-13.1%

Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

8.9%

-12.0%

Industry Total

16.6%

-9.5%

 Source: Edmunds.com

Note: June 2010 had 25 selling days, the same as last June 2009.

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LEAVE A COMMENT

maitlandking says: 8:07 AM, 06.25.10

"It also appears some new car shoppers are shifting to lightly used cars, seeking value, which hurts automakers but helps dealers who generally make more money on used cars than new."

Welcome to the new normal. Government better get that GM IPO out before people realize there is no V shaped recovery.

1487 says: 10:35 AM, 06.25.10

one day Toyota is going to realize this is more than a pedal/reputation issue. Its a product issue. They havent' gotten the memo yet and continue to think they can turn things around by simply spending millions on ads telling us how safe their cars are. The products are mediocre relative to ever improving competition.

guy1974 says: 1:01 PM, 06.25.10

Please can Edmunds just quote the gain/loss from the same month last year. Comparing to the month before is irrelevant since each month is different and we know it is a seasonal market. Sales are up from last year - that is the key fact. Other businesses work on year to year comparison. Please do this, will save Edmunds time and allow for less clutter in the stats.

carguy58 says: 4:19 PM, 06.28.10

Why is Chrysler up by 33-34% this month? I mean their offerings are the worst of the Big 7 automakers. Even Mazda and Subie have better offerings than Chrysler. Boy, I wonder of Chryslers 33-34% sales gain this month includes 40% of their sales going to rental fleets. I mean their % of fleets when added in with their total sales this year is a big number like 40% in some months this year.

1487: Toyota still makes a good car but your right the compeition is getting better!

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