Cash for Clunkers Could Push July SAAR To 10 Million, Edmunds.com Forecasts

Cash for Clunkers Could Push July SAAR To 10 Million, Edmunds.com Forecasts

By Michelle Krebs July 23, 2009

The Cash for Clunkers program that's just kicking into gear and summer sell-down events offered by manufacturers could push July's selling rate over the long-hoped-for 10-million rate, Edmunds.com forecasts.

July vehicle sales, both retail and fleet, are expected to be about 950,000 units, for a nearly 10.5 million Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR), according to Edmunds.com's forecast.

July sales, to be reported by automakers Aug. 4, would be down 16 percent from last July, but up nearly 11 percent from June, according to Edmunds.com's forecast.

With value as the primary motivator for sales in this economy, the summer sell-down deals and the launch of the government's Cash for Clunkers program could give industry sales a boost, said Jesse Toprak, Edmunds.com's executive director of Industry Analysis.

The so-called Cash for Clunkers program, officially known as Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), gets rolling next week. Reports from dealers across the country indicate consumers have already struck their deals for their clunker-to-new car exchange and are just waiting for the process to be officially finalized. Edmunds.com also has experienced a substantial increase in shopping activity by consumers on its Web site, indicating sales will soon follow.

Company By Company Forecast

The Hyundai Group, according to Edmunds.com's forecast, will post a year-over year sales increase. Ford sales are likely to be flat, which in this economy is nearly as good as being up.

Combined monthly market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors is expected to come in at 42.3 percent in July, down from 43.4 percent in July 2008 and down from 46.2 percent in June.

Edmunds.com forecasts the following July sales:

GM will sell 188,000 vehicles, down 19.5 percent compared to July 2008 and up 7.6 percent from June for a market share of 19.8 percent, down from 20.6 percent in July 2008 and down from 20.4 percent in June.

Ford will sell 154,000 vehicles, down 4.2 percent compared to July 2008 and up 0.5 percent from June for a market share of 16.2 percent, up from 14.2 percent in July 2008 and down from 17.9 percent in June.

Chrysler will sell 60,000 vehicles, down 38.6 percent compared to July 2008 and down 11.6 percent from June for a market share of 6.3 percent, down from 8.6 percent in July 2008 and down from 7.9 percent in June.

Toyota will sell 167,000 vehicles, down 15.4 percent from July 2008 and up 26.9 percent from June for a market share of 17.6 percent, up from 17.4 percent in July 2008 and up from 15.4 percent in June 2009.

Honda will sell 123,000 vehicles, down 13.8 percent from July 2008 and up 22.0 percent from June for a market share of 12.9 percent, up from 12.5 percent in July 2008 and up from 11.7 percent in June 2009.

Hyundai Group (including Kia) will sell 74,000 vehicles, up 8.0 percent from July 2008 and up 14.5 percent from June for a market share of 7.8 percent, up from 6.1 percent in July 2008 and up from 7.6 percent in June.

Nissan will sell 71,000 vehicles, down 26.0 percent from July 2008 and up 21.0 percent from June for a market share of 7.4 percent, down from 8.4 percent in July 2008 and up from 6.8 percent in June.

July 2009 had 26 selling days, the same as last July 2008. The chart shows unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.

	Change from July 2008	Change from June 2009 (Unadjusted for fewer selling days)
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep)	-38.6%	-11.6%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo)	-4.2%	0.5%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn)	-19.5%	7.6%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	-13.8%	22.0%
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia)	8.0%	14.5%
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan)	-26.0%	21.0%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	-15.4%	26.9%
Industry Total	-16.3%	10.8%

Source: Edmunds.com 

 

 

Michelle Krebs:  is Editor-in-Chief of AutoObserver.com. Follow @AutoObserver on Twitter.