SANTA MONICA, Calif. — October 24, 2013 — Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,229,860 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million. The projected sales will be an 8.2 percent increase from September 2013, and a 12.7 percent increase from October 2012.
The overall sales projections suggest that the government shutdown earlier this month had minimal effect on auto sales. But, says Edmunds.com, a longer shutdown could have left an ugly mark on what has been otherwise a glowing year for the automotive industry.
"It looks like the government shutdown ended just in the nick of time," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "The week-by-week data suggests that consumers started to get jittery by the middle of the month. But with the government back to work, most lost sales should be made up in the latter half of the month, and the industry's momentum will continue the pace it enjoyed before the disruption in Washington."
|Sales Volume||Oct-13 Forecast||Oct-12||Sep-13||Change from Oct 2012*||Change from Sep 2013*|
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.0 million vehicles in October, with fleet transactions accounting for 16.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.06 million used cars will be sold in October, for a SAAR of 35.6 million (compared to 3.02 million — or a SAAR of 36.3 million — used car sales in September).
While most major automakers are expected to easily clear September's sales totals, Edmunds.com projects that Chrysler sales will fall 2.2 percent month to month. As a result, Edmunds.com expects that the company's market share will recede 1.2 percentage points in October, just one month after it hit its highest share in over five years.
|Market Share||Oct-13 Forecast||Oct-12||Sep-13||Change from October 2012 (Percentage pts.)||Change from September 2013 (Percentage pts.)|
General Motors, meanwhile, is expected to create a little breathing room at the top of the sales standings. Edmunds.com projects that GM sales will increase 15 percent from September to October, outpacing top rival Ford's growth of 5.2 percent. In September, Ford finished within almost 3,000 sales of GM's total, and nearly claimed its first head-to-head victory since March 2011.
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
About Edmunds.com, Inc.
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