Edmunds.com Auto Sales Forecast: Analysts See Chrysler up 35 Percent


Edmunds.com Auto Sales Forecast: Analysts See Chrysler up 35 Percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — January 26, 2011 — An estimated 866,655 new cars will be sold in January, for a projected Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 13.4 million units, forecasts Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information. This sales pace is relatively flat from the 13.5 million SAAR recorded last month, but up from the 12.6 million SAAR from January 2011.

Edmunds.com forecasts that Chrysler will have the biggest year-over-year sales jump of any major automaker in January, climbing 35.1 percent. The growth far outpaces the year-over-year performance of any other Big Six automaker, with Ford coming closest at 9.5 percent. Chrysler also will attain the highest year-over-year market share growth of any top automaker, gaining 2.3 percentage points compared to January 2011.

"Chrysler's momentum has been nothing short of remarkable, especially when it was on its last lifelines as recently as two years ago," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs. "It's poetic that Chrysler is receiving this well-deserved recognition almost exactly one year after its 'Imported from Detroit' ad campaign debuted during the Super Bowl, which was really the big turning point for the company."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume Jan-12 Forecast Jan-11 Dec-11 Change from Jan 2011 Change from Dec 2011
GM 163,061 178,901 234,351 -8.9% -30.4%
Ford 138,670 126,645 209,449 9.5% -33.8%
Toyota 120,980 115,856 178,131 4.4% -32.1%
Chrysler 94,733 70,118 138,019 35.1% -31.4%
Nissan 77,640 71,847 100,927 8.1% -23.1%
Honda 75,419 76,268 105,230 -1.1% -28.3%
Industry 866,655 819,097 1,242,971 5.8% -30.3%
*NOTE: January 2011 and 2012 each had 24 sales days

General Motors is expected to have the least growth of any major automaker. Edmunds.com predicts that GM's year-over-year sales will fall 8.9 percent in January, resulting in a three perecentage-point decline in market share. However, Edmunds believes that this decline is in large part due to GM's aggressive incentives push — and resulting sales — in early-2011 that was not repeated in 2012.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share Jan-12 Forecast Jan-11 Dec-11 Change from Jan-11 Change from Dec-11
GM 18.8% 21.8% 18.9% -3.0% 0.1%
Ford 16.0% 15.5% 16.9% 0.5% -0.9%
Toyota 14.0% 14.1% 14.3% -0.1% -0.3%
Chrysler 10.9% 8.6% 11.1% 2.3% -0.2%
Nissan 9.0% 8.8% 8.1% 0.2% 0.9%
Honda 8.7% 9.3% 8.5% -0.6% 0.2%

Overall sales are expected to rise 5.8 percent from January 2011, but will fall 30.3 percent from December 2011, which falls in line with the typical pattern of December-to-January turnaround. Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 10.8 million vehicles in January, with fleet transactions accounting for 20 percent of total sales.

"This is a solid start to 2012, especially when there were so many fewer 'buy' messages in January compared to December's heavy holiday sales push," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "The continued momentum suggests that deferred demand is still keeping the auto industry's mini sales bubble afloat."

Additional data on sales, market share and incentive spending can also be found in Edmunds.com's Data Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/data/.

About Edmunds.com, Inc. (http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/index.html)

Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site. Its revered mobile site and five-star app makes car pricing and other research tools available for car shoppers at dealerships and otherwise on the go. Its automotive enthusiast Web site, InsideLine.com, is the most-read car publication of its kind. Its highly regarded mobile site and app features the wireless Web's highest quality car photos and videos. Edmunds.com Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit. Follow Edmunds.com on Twitter@edmunds and like Edmunds.com on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/edmunds.

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